836
FXUS65 KREV 030900
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
200 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ISOLATED MODERATE HEATRISK IN
LOWER VALLEYS.
* BREEZY WINDS MAY BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS PRODUCING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
* SOME COOLING RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR EARLY
JUNE AVERAGES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES MAY
ALSO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY:
* WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER CA/NV WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NV VALLEYS, WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. FRIDAY IS TRENDING A BIT
WARMER, WITH HIGHS PUSHING TO NEAR 95 DEGREES IN WEST CENTRAL
NV, INCREASING THE EXTENT OF MODERATE HEATRISK.
BREEZY TODAY & FRIDAY, THEN BRIEF LULL THURSDAY:
* A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST SIGNAL FOR GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV, AND EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY. WINDS EASE
BACK ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC STORM.
STRONGER WEEKEND STORM AND WIND POTENTIAL:
* A DEEPER NORTHEAST PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND, WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CA-NV. WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS STORM
VARIES AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS, THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH CONTINUES TO FAVOR
SATURDAY. FOR WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR US-395/I-580 IN FAR WESTERN
NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA, THERE'S A 40-70% CHANCE FOR PEAK
GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH. WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY INCREASE--SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF FROM THIS
WEEK'S WARMTH, WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 70 FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES--NEAR EARLY JUNE AVERAGES.
NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK--SHOWER CHANCES MAY RETURN:
* NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH INCREASED SPREAD AMONG THE LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE LEADS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM WITH A COLD FRONT COULD DROP ACROSS CA/NV BY LATE
NEXT MONDAY AND BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIOS KEEP THIS
STORM AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES. HOWEVER, A MAJORITY OF THE SCENARIOS SHOW A QUICKER
EXIT OF THIS STORM, SO WE WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES ON THE
LOWER END--GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR WESTERN NV AND 10-20% NEAR
THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MJD
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR ALL MAIN
TERMINALS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
* SW-W WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT AT TIMES AT THE MAIN TERMINALS, EXCEPT SLIGHTLY LESS AT
KTVL. WITH FL100 WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KT FROM THE SIMILAR
DIRECTION, CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN
WAVE TURBULENCE AND OCCASIONAL LLWS NEAR AND EAST OF THE SIERRA.
* AFTER A DECREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY, THE NEXT STORM BRINGS BREEZY
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN STRONGER
WINDS WITH INCREASED IMPACTS TO AVIATION LIKELY ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY.
MJD
FIRE WEATHER
* LAST WEEK'S COOL AND WET CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY EASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE RECENT AND UPCOMING STRETCH OF
WARM AND DRY DAYS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DRYING OF VEGETATION,
LEADING TO A MIXTURE OF CONDITIONS INCLUDING POCKETS OF DRIER
GRASSES/BRUSH WHICH MAY BECOME MORE RECEPTIVE TO CARRYING FIRE.
* THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OVERLAP WITH
MINIMUM RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NV SOUTH OF GERLACH. A SIMILAR PERIOD OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF WESTERN NV FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
* SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH A 70% OR
GREATER CHANCE FOR PEAK GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NV, ALONG WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND MONO
COUNTIES. IN THESE AREAS, MINIMUM RH IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
8-15% AS THESE WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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