830
FXUS65 KREV 040924
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK
ACROSS WARMER LOWER VALLEYS.
* LIGHTER BREEZES RETURN TODAY, THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES
INCREASE FRIDAY WITH BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS, THEN THE PEAK
WINDS AND FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
* SOME COOLING RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE AVERAGES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWER CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY:
* LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER CA/NV WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND VERY
DRY AIR MASS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. FRIDAY REMAINS THE WARMEST
DAY, WITH MID 90S ALONG MUCH OF THE US-95 CORRIDOR, SUPPORTING A
GREATER EXTENT OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NV.
LIGHTER WINDS TODAY, THEN INCREASING WINDS FRIDAY:
* WE'LL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY, WITH A LIGHTER ZONAL
FLOW SUPPORTING TYPICAL AFTERNOON W-NW BREEZES GUSTS 25 MPH OR
LESS. THE NEXT STORM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL BRING
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AS WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL BRING MINOR IMPACTS
FOR RECREATION AND AVIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY WITH COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND:
* THE MAIN PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN
CA/NV SATURDAY, BRINGING STRONGER SW-W WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND-PRONE CORRIDORS ALONG
US-395/I-580, US-95, AND THE EASTERN SIERRA. THESE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE MORE NOTABLE IMPACTS FOR RECREATION AND TRAVEL COMPARED
TO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY AND DROP FURTHER TO EARLY JUNE AVERAGES SUNDAY (NEAR 80
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 70 FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES) WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COOLER WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS NEXT WEEK:
* FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MAY MOVE INLAND
AND MAINTAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK WHICH APPEARS TO BE SLOWER
THAN THE SATURDAY STORM, WE COULD AGAIN SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS (30+ MPH) AND INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
LEANING A BIT COOLER AND WETTER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-80, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN RANGE FROM 15-30% FOR
NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV AND THE TAHOE REGION, WITH 5-15%
CHANCES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NV AND MONO COUNTY.
MJD
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NO MEANINGFUL CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS A LOW
20-30% CHANCE FOR A RETURN OF PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AROUND KTRK
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* WINDS EASE TODAY AT THE MAIN TERMINALS (GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 20
KT, EXCEPT A SHORT PERIOD OF 20-25 KT AT KMMH), THEN INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT MOST SITES
(EXCEPT BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AT KRNO).
* SATURDAY REMAINS THE HIGHER-IMPACT AVIATION PERIOD, WITH
WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST-WEST GUSTS OF 25-35 KT AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS AND FL100 GUSTS OF 40-50 KT. EXPECT INCREASED AREAS OF
TURBULENCE, CROSSWIND CONCERNS, AND PERIODS OF LLWS NEAR AND
EAST OF THE SIERRA.
MJD
FIRE WEATHER
* RECENT AND UPCOMING WARM DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY (10% OR BELOW MOST DAYS) AND LIMITED OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
(30-50%) WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT GRASS AND BRUSH-TYPE
VEGETATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NV.
* BREEZY WINDS WITH SW-W GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
AREAS WHERE DRIER VEGETATION IS PRESENT. A FEW SMALL FIRES
OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY IN WESTERN NV WITH SIMILAR WINDS, BUT THEY
WERE QUICKLY EXTINGUISHED.
* SATURDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARRIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING. SOUTHWEST-WEST GUSTS OVER
35 MPH ARE LIKELY (>70%) ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN CA, WITH MINIMUM RH GENERALLY 8-15% IN LOWER
VALLEYS. LONGER CRITICAL WIND/RH OVERLAP SUPPORTS ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE GRASSES AND BRUSH
HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DRY.
MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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