218
FXUS65 KREV 081005
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
305 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING RECREATION AND TRAVEL IMPACTS TODAY ALONG
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
* TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER STARTING TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CONUS THIS
MORNING, WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA
SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOING THROUGH TODAY, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE A LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND REINFORCING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WITH
THIS SETUP ALOFT, THE CURRENT COOLING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH W
NV VALLEY HIGHS BEING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S RANGE AND
SIERRA COMMUNITIES SEEING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S
RANGE. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GOING INTO TONIGHT, THE FORECAST
IS ALSO CALLING FOR A ~15-35% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NE
CA, THE NORTHERN SIERRA, AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WITH BETTER
CHANCES STAYING NORTH OF THE OR BORDER. PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTY ALSO WILL SEE AROUND 10-20% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STAYS MOSTLY DRY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MOISTURE FROM THESE SHOWERS WITH THE RESIDENT DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR VIRGA OVER RAIN. BUT IF
A SHOWER DEVELOPS AND PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THE GROUND, QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY COMES FROM THE GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE REGION. WINDS START TO PICK UP AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE NOON GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL GUST
UP TO AROUND 30-40 MPH (UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS
AND UP TO AROUND 55 MPH IN THE SIERRA RIDGES) GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. AS THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON
AREA LAKES, LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY (PLEASE SEE
THE PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS). BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY
MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITHIN THE W NV BASIN AND RANGE ESPECIALLY
NEAR DESERT SINKS AND PLAYAS, SO PLEASE USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING
THROUGH THESE AREAS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING AN ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
SO PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THIS.
MODELS PROJECT THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SIGNALS DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE ARE IN THE FORECAST STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE W NV AND NE CA VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SIERRA COMMUNITIES ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING HIGHS BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND THE MIDDLE 80S. WE'LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS AS THE LATEST NWS HEATRISK PRODUCT IS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK WITHIN W NV, BUT PLEASE PLAN
NOW FOR THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS LATER
THIS WEEK. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INCREASED WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-35 KTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED
STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING THAT MAY LAST THROUGH AT LEAST AROUND
10/06Z WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LLWS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE
WITHIN THE REGION. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
KLOL AND KNFL DUE TO BLOWING DUST AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
BETWEEN 15-35% ARE IN THE FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITHIN THE REGION ESPECIALLY PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER,
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES
AT THIS TIME. -078
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY WHEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE. GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL OVERLAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES RANGING 10-15% ACROSS POCKETS OF PERSHING, CHURCHILL,
LYON AND MONO COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HRICH/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ002>004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ071-072.
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