802
FXUS65 KREV 231955
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1255 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
* INCREASING WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY & SATURDAY.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
* TEMPERATURES PEAKING TODAY WILL GRADUALLY COOL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY TYPICAL ZEPHYR BREEZES. HEATRISK REMAINS
MODERATE FOR MANY AREAS INTO THURSDAY. A FEW BUILDUPS OR VERY
ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON HREF - MAINLY OVER HIGH
SIERRA OR FAR NE CALIFORNIA.
* MASSIVE PATTERN CHANGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOMALOUS
COLD TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST, WITH SUB-ZERO 700MB
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR LATE JUNE.
* ANYTIME WE SEE MAX TEMPS DROP FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOW/MID 70S
IN SUMMER, WE'RE GOING TO GET SOME WIND AND SURE ENOUGH FRIDAY
& SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY. ECMWF EFI HITTING 0.75 TO 0.85 ON THE
WIND WHICH IS NOTABLE. NBM SHOWING 70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS 35+ MPH
FOR MUCH OF W NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA, AND 20% FOR 45+
MPH (WHICH IS OUR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD). SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
MORE OF A SUSTAINED WIND ISSUE, WHEREAS FRIDAY IT'S THE GUSTS
THAT'LL BE IMPACTFUL. SO CLEARLY THIS IS A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
WITH DRY FUELS IN LOWER/MID ELEVATIONS, EVEN WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY (RH MINS 12-20%) AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS
COULD ALSO BE IMPACTFUL FOR AIR/ROAD TRAVEL AND BACKCOUNTRY
RECREATION.
* SHOWERS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOWING BANDS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING BOTH FRIDAY & SATURDAY,
MAINLY I-80 NORTHWARD. GENERALLY ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN EACH DAY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80, WITH 10-20% ODDS
OF A WETTING RAIN IN PLACES LIKE SUSANVILLE, PORTOLA, AND
CEDARVILLE. WITH THAT COLD AIR, SNOW LINES DROP PRETTY LOW FOR
LATE JUNE - NBM SHOWING 7200-8500' ON SATURDAY FOR EXAMPLE.
WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. NBM
INDICATING 10-20% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR SIERRA CREST.
COULD DEFINITELY CATCH BACKCOUNTRY FOLKS OFF-GUARD.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE, WITH
80-90% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS BELOW 80F FOR W NEVADA CITIES
INCLUDING RENO. SIMILAR PERCENTAGES FOR MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES IF
YOU ADJUST THE THRESHOLD TO 70F. SUNDAY & MONDAY MORNINGS WILL
BE CRISP WITH 80-100% CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN TOWNS SEEING FROSTS
(LESS THAN 36F). 30% CHANCE OF THAT AT MINDEN AND OTHER TYPICAL
COLD VALLEYS. COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
* FOR NEXT WEEK AND AS WE HEAD INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND,
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH NO BIG PRECIP OR WIND SIGNALS IN THE
AI ENSEMBLE DATA.
-CHRIS
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS WITH TYPICAL WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON TODAY AND TOMORROW. GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KNOTS.
* WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING 30 KNOTS AT
700MB AT 6Z/WED SO HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR IN TVL/TRK TAFS.
* SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE WINDS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS AS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
* SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT TRK WEDNESDAY 9-15Z PER LAMP
GUIDANCE BUT LIKELY TO BE PATCHY AND SHALLOW WITH DRIER RH
VERSUS THIS MORNING. 20% CHANCE OF BRIEF LIFR AT TRK SO NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF.
-CHRIS
FIRE WEATHER
* UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATE JUNE PROJECTED TO BRING
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
EASTWARD INTO THE HWY 95 CORRIDOR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 40 MPH BOTH DAYS, W/SW DIRECTION ON FRIDAY AND W/NW ON
SATURDAY. SATURDAY'S WINDS MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A SUSTAINED
WIND CONCERN VERSUS JUST THE GUSTS. ALMOST AN APRIL-LIKE PATTERN
IN LATE JUNE.
* FOR AREAS IN THE WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARSON CITY TO
LOVELOCK LINE, INCLUDING RENO, THE HUMIDITY MAY BE JUST ABOVE
RFW CRITERIA, AROUND 15-25% FOR AFTERNOON MINIMUMS. BUT WITH
PLENTY OF DRY FUELS/GRASSES AND RECENT SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
EVENT LAST FRIDAY WITH HOLDOVER POTENTIAL, WE FELT IT BEST TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF BEING PROACTIVE BY ISSUING THE WATCH.
* ONE OTHER AREA TO BE MINDFUL OF IS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA ALONG HWY 6 AND 395 BELOW 7000' (E.G CHALFANT
VALLEY). ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER, I COULD SEE US
EXPANDING THE WATCH TO THIS ZONE FOR SATURDAY AS IT USUALLY
RESPONDS WELL TO NW GRADIENT WINDS.
* HUMIDITY RECOVERIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LOOK
GOOD (45-75%), BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR MID-SLOPES AND
RIDGES.
-CHRIS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
NVZ420.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
NVZ423-429.
CA...
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