268
FXUS65 KREV 141852
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1152 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
* CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES ISOLATED AND SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DRY, BREEZY AND HOT AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
WE HAD A DECENT SOAKING LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING, LEADING
TO FOG AND LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS SEEN ALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE OVERNIGHT 12Z SOUNDING REVEALED THE PWAT CLIMBED TO 1.1
INCHES, WHICH EXPLAINS THE HUMID AIR WE ARE ALL FEELING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL PLAY A STARRING ROLE IN TODAY'S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AFTER YESTERDAY'S RAINS,
IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO GET OUT AND CHECK THE STORM DRAINS FOR
DEBRIS, AND MAKE SURE THEY ARE CLEARED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY AS OF 11
AM, AND WE ANTICIPATE AN EARLY START TO TODAY'S CONVECTION.
SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP IN EARNEST BY NOON TO 1 PM, FIRST
FIRING OVER LASSEN COUNTY, BUT SOON TO BE JOINED BY STORMS OVER
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A TAD SLOWER THAN
YESTERDAY'S, BUT STILL AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST. CAMS
HAVE SHOWN SOME STORM TRAINING BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
INCREASES CONCERNS FOR FLOODING, IF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FROM
STORM AFTER STORM REPEATEDLY GOING OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE THE
EXPECTED QPF SHOWS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.25 INCHES, WITH
ALL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY TO SEE TRAINING
SHOWERS, WE COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.5 INCHES UP TO AN
INCH.
THE DIFFERENCE FROM TODAY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY'S STORMS, THEY
DON'T LOOK TO HANG ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A TROUGH IS DROPPING
IN, BRINGING ALONG A BIT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL HELP TO MOVE STORMS
OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO SLIDES EASTWARD
INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS THAT BY
WEDNESDAY BRINGS IN WARMER, DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL STILL BE FOUND OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY (10-20% CHANCES), WITH A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE FOUND AS FAR WEST AS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-15% AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, THE
BREEZIEST DAY LOOKS TO LAND ON THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OVER
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS 20-25 MPH AND RIDGES GUSTING 35-40 MPH.
THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING BACK TO THE WETTER SIDE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SET UP IS
FAVORED FOR RETURNING MONSOONAL FLOW TO OUR VICINITY. HRICH
AVIATION
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
NEAR KBAN(60-80%) AND KRNO(55-65%), HOWEVER ALL LOCAL TERMINALS
HAVE CHANCES TODAY. THE FOCUS IS ON THE 20Z-03Z TIME FRAME, WITH
STORMS MOVING NORTH AFTER FORMING. WIND GUSTS NEAR THE STORMS MAY
REACH UP TO 35 KTS, WITH HEAVY RAIN, SMALL ACCUMULATING HAIL AND
LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS TODAY. AFTER 06Z MOST SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING OUT OR TAPERING OFF. HRICH
FIRE WEATHER
* THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST TODAY FOR FIRE RISK WILL BE IN NORTHERN
WASHOE AND LASSEN COUNTIES, WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FELL
YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA,
RENEWING CONCERNS FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH THAT COULD DRIVE FLAMES, SHOULD A SPARK IGNITE.
ELSEWHERE, HEAVY RAINS MAY WORK TO HELP FIRE EFFORTS FOR THE
ELEPHANT FIRE, HOWEVER TOO MUCH RAIN COULD CREATE DIFFICULTY IN
MOVING PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT IF ROADS BECOME INUNDATED WITH
FLOOD WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MORNING FOG THAT WAS FOUND OVER
THE SIERRA VALLEY MAY RETURN TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH COULD IMPACT
VISIBILITY.
* WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGS A DRIER, WARMER AND BREEZIER
AIRMASS, REINTRODUCING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND FAR NW NEVADA. GUST SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 20-25 MPH IN VALLEYS, WITH RIDGELINES GUSTING 35-40
MPH. HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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