678
FXUS65 KREV 150858
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF NE CA, MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES TODAY.
* A DRIER, BREEZIER AND WARMER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY RESTRICTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
ISOLATED.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
RADAR IS MOSTLY CLEAR OF RAIN IN OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE DEBRIS (CLOUDS) REMAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
NV BASIN AND RANGE, MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES. THIS AFTERNOON, WE
SHOULD HAVE LOW LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~200 J/KG)
AND SHEAR (AROUND 25 KTS) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN PORTIONS OF
MONO/MINERAL AND OVER NE CA. PWS ARE LOWER TODAY AROUND 0.8-0.9
INCHES MEANING THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE A LESS
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER. SO, WATCH OUT FOR ANY DRY LIGHTNING
TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 5%. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOWS AS THEY DISSIPATE,
THOUGH.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY, HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PACNW PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE BEEN
SLIGHTLY PUSHED OUT ALONG WITH SUNNIER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES
AND 90S FOR NE CA AND WESTERN NV. THE SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH VALLEYS AND 30-40 MPH
OVER RIDGELINES, ESPECIALLY OVER NE CA AND THE SIERRA CREST.
THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS OVER THE
ROCKIES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, PUSHING THE UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RETURN OF A MONSOONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE TOWARDS WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA. IT IS LOOKING DRIER
THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING A FEW DAYS AGO, BUT IT IS STARTING TO
TREND WETTER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER THE SIERRA AND
MINERAL COUNTY WITH POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO FURTHER INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
-HC
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE AS -SHRA/-TSRA MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA COULD BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE OR BORDER AND NEAR KMMH/KHTH. ALTHOUGH KTRK HAS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING FG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD
BE DRY TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH 18Z THEN BECOME
FROM THE WEST 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AFTER 20Z. WINDS
SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. SOME LLWS AND MINOR TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN INTO NE CA DUE TO FL100 WINDS TO 25 KTS AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGS A DRIER, WARMER AND BREEZIER AIRMASS,
REINTRODUCING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
NE CALIFORNIA AND FAR NW NEVADA. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS RISE WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH IN VALLEYS, AND
RIDGELINES TO 35-40 MPH. THIS MAY LIGHT UP ANY POTENTIAL HOLDOVER
FIRES FROM LIGHTNING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER NE
CA. ADDITIONALLY, THE MORNING FOG THAT MAY RETURN THIS MORNING TO
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, NE CA AND WESTERN NV, WHICH COULD IMPACT
VISIBILITY.
-HRICH/HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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