903
FXUS65 KREV 152108
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
* A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS
WITH MINOR IMPACTS TO RECREATION.
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TODAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SCOURS OUT
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER,
AND FROM MONO COUNTY INTO THE W NV BASIN AND RANGE ARE MOST FAVORED,
BUT THERE MAY BE SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS US-395. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE AFTERNOON BREEZES TO
BE A SKOSH STRONGER THAN USUAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY -- ALBEIT NOT BY
MUCH. W/SW GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH (LOCALLY UP TO 35 MPH) WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS FAR NE CALIFORNIA AND NW NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY
MAKE FOR ROUGHER LAKE WATERS IN THESE AREAS. MOREOVER, THESE
INCREASED BREEZES AND RH REDUCTIONS TO 10-15% WILL BRIEFLY POSE
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE
DRY. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TO
END THE WEEK WITH LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES PERSISTING IN THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONO COUNTY INTO THE W NV BASIN & RANGE.
MUCH OF THE SAME IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE INCREASES AND FURTHER EXPANDS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RENEWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.
-SALAS
AVIATION
LOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY, WITH BEST CHANCES OF 10-20% AT WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS AND KMMH-KBAN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES PREVAIL WITH CUMULUS BUILD-UPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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