579
FXUS65 KREV 080840
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 AM PDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A HEATWAVE WILL IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT A COOLING TREND MITIGATES HEAT IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.
* SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN EACH AFTERNOON IN THE E. SIERRA AND
FAR W NEVADA, WITH INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
* INCREASED BREEZES ELEVATE FIRE AND RECREATION CONCERNS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
OUR ONGOING HEATWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
DAYTIME HIGHS REACH THE 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON AWAY
FROM HIGHER SIERRA ELEVATIONS. THE MOST DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TO
RESIDE ACROSS LOWER W NEVADA VALLEYS WHERE NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE 100-105F
DAYTIME HEAT. MOREOVER, CLOUD DEBRIS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHTTIME LOWS, FURTHER COMPOUNDING HEAT
IMPACTS. FORTUNATELY, A MUCH-NEEDED COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL
LOWER TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MITIGATE HEAT IMPACTS.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING BENEATH DEEP MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RENEW A
LOW PROBABILITY (10-30% CHANCE) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD
AND FAR W NEVADA. HOWEVER, STRONGER W/SW BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LASSEN CO INTO N WASHOE CO TODAY, WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY ALOFT, WARRANTS AT LEAST A 15%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. A DEEP, WELL-MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS AS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH BOTH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. GIVEN THAT A
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTED 45-55 MPH OUTFLOW GUSTS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS TO BE IN THIS RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL (MAINLY IN MONO COUNTY).
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FOCUS ACROSS MONO-S.LYON-
MINERAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING TO
20-40%. FARTHER NORTH, CHANCES DECREASE TO 10% OR LESS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN. STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (5% OR LESS) OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE MONO-S.LYON-E.MINERAL CO VICINITY WHERE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL,
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS OVERLAP. AFTER SUNDAY,
CHANCES DECREASE AND REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF US-50.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, W/SW BREEZES WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE PEAKING ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH. THESE INCREASED BREEZES WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE CONCERNS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM THE OR BORDER SOUTH ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT, AS WELL AS MAKE MORE MORE CHOPPY LAKE WATERS. WINDS
SHIFT TO N/NW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DIRECTING SMOKE FROM PACNW
WILDFIRES INTO THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY DEGRADING AIR QUALITY
NORTH OF RENO. LATE NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT EXACT DETAILS ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
-SALAS
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY,
PARTICULARLY AT KMMH-KBAN WHERE CHANCES (20-30%) ARE GREATEST IN THE
20-03Z TIMEFRAME. ELSEWHERE, CHANCES REDUCE TO 10-20% AT KTVL-KTRK
AND KRNO-KCXP-KMEV. SUDDEN AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS,
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/MVFR CONDITIONS, AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ARE AMONG
POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ONCE AGAIN FAVORING KMMH-KBAN
WHERE ODDS INCREASE TO 20-40%.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED HEAT POSING DENSITY ALTITUDE
CONCERNS.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY NVZ001-003-005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY NVZ004.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY CAZ070-071.
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