883
FXUS65 KREV 241913
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1213 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH
A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING.
* SMOKE FROM THE HAWK FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY
AND VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RENO/SPARKS METRO AREA
TODAY.
* INCREASED WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL RECREATIONAL IMPACTS BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR TODAY FEATURES A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US, WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO OREGON. THIS SETUP, COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE, WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA. THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. HOWEVER, IT'LL BEGIN
TO FLATTEN LATER THIS WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A RETURN OF SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR MONSOON-DRIVEN CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AROUND FRIDAY.
WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THERE'S A THREAT FOR STRONG,
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 45-55 MPH WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS.
PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 0.60-0.80 INCHES, INDICATING SOME
MOISTURE, BUT A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS A CONCERN FOR DRY
LIGHTNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE OREGON BORDER.
POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 15-20% ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN
NV. THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA AND MAMMOTH LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUICKER TODAY,
FURTHER INCREASING THE DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH
20% CHANCES SOUTH OF US-50, ESPECIALLY S. CHURCHILL AND MINERAL
COUNTIES.
SMOKE FROM THE HAWK FIRE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN TODAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE RENO/SPARKS METRO AREA. LIGHTER MORNING WINDS
WILL ALLOW SMOKE TO SETTLE, REDUCING VISIBILITY AND DEGRADING AIR
QUALITY. SOUTHWEST-WEST AFTERNOON BREEZES SHOULD AID IN
DISPERSION, BUT SMOKE WILL LIKELY SETTLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
25-40 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE ELEVATED WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR THURSDAY, BUT NBM GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES (10%) FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, FUELING SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED CELLS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF, HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AREA TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS. SMOKE FROM THE HAWK
FIRE MAY CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT KRTS AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KRNO THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE LATEST FORECAST IS NOT
CALLING FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND AMEND TAFS IF NEEDED. THE INCREASED
WINDS WILL AID IN SMOKE DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DEPENDING
ON FIRE ACTIVITY TODAY, SMOKE COULD TO SETTLE IN PORTIONS OF W NV
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN WINDS DECREASE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE AROUND A 15-
20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NE CA AND W
NV BEGINNING AROUND 21Z WITH PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE THE OR BORDER
SEEING THE HIGHER END CHANCES. BY TONIGHT AT 03-04Z,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO FIZZLE OUT. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS.
-078/JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RH REDUCTIONS
OF 20-25% WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT AND NE CA, INCLUDING THE HAWK
FIRE. SLIGHTLY BETTER OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST AROUND
THE 40-50% RANGE NEAR THE HAWK FIRE.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS ALONG THE OR BORDER
UNDER A 15-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1-9 PM TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS CAPE VALUES UP TO 500
J/KG SIGNALING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT CAN SUPPORT VERTICAL
PLUME GROWTH WITH THE MOIST MID-LEVEL SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
PRECIP CHANCES AROUND THE HAWK FIRE REMAIN LOW (<10%), HOWEVER, IF
STORMS DO FORM OVER OR CLOSE TO THE FIRE, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT COULD PUSH OVER THE FIRE AND CAUSE A
SUDDEN WIND SHIFT.
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 35 MPH (40 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS) ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND NE CA.
THE SPC'S FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THESE DAYS ALSO HIGHLIGHTS
THESE AREAS WITH 40% CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH. CURRENTLY, DAYS WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
FURTHER UPDATES IN CASE FIRE PRODUCTS NEED TO BE ISSUED.
-078/JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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