997
FXUS65 KREV 252027
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY IN
CHURCHILL, MINERAL, AND MONO COUNTIES.
* BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
* A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TODAY FEATURES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US, WITH WESTERN NV ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY,
EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A PACNW LOW IS GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE,
INTERACTING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER
CHURCHILL, MINERAL, AND S. MONO COUNTIES, WITH 15-25% CHANCES
BETWEEN 2-8 PM. DCAPE VALUES OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE THAT ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS (40-45
MPH). BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM THE
HAWK FIRE MAY PERSIST, PARTICULARLY IN THE RENO-SPARKS AREA, BUT
IMPROVED VENTILATION IS ANTICIPATED. PATCHY SMOKE MAY ALSO CREEP
INTO NE CA FROM THE TIMBER FIRE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE PAC NW LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION, STRENGTHENING THE UPPER JET OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING SURFACE WINDS, WITH NBM GUIDANCE
SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY IN
WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA. THESE ELEVATED
WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH NBM HIGHS FOR WESTERN
NV VALLEYS IN THE MID 90S, AND SIERRA COMMUNITIES IN THE LOW 80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (10%) FOR MOST OF THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SHOWER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOCALIZED
SIGNAL AND CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP REMAINS LOW. BY
THURSDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
ACROSS THE CWA, WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS, ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING SOUTH
OF US-50.
FRIDAY ONWARD, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK AS
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL
BRING A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A NOTABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY (40-60%).
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
SEE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY, WITH VALLEY HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S, AND SIERRA HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON FRIDAY, GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEYOND SATURDAY, THE NBM AND GFS
GUIDANCE POINT TO A RETURN OF DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAINING GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS A MORE STABLE, DRIER REGIME
SETTLING IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS IN THE REGION GUSTING UP TO BETWEEN 20-25
KTS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SMOKE PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IMPACT FROM HAWK FIRE SMOKE TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS. NOT ANTICIPATING FLIGHT RULES TO
BE REDUCED AT THIS TIME DUE TO SMOKE AT KRNO, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IN CASE THIS CHANGES.
THERE'S A 15-25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
CHURCHILL, MINERAL, AND S. MONO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
25/21Z-26/04Z. LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SEEN IN THE NV
BASIN AND RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
-078/JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH AND RH REDUCTIONS
OF 15-25% WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SIERRA FRONT AND NE CA,
INCLUDING THE HAWK FIRE. TUESDAY NIGHT RH RECOVERIES IN THESE AREAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35-50%.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
35 MPH (40 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS) ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE
SIERRA FRONT AND NE CA. CURRENTLY, THE DAY WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS LOOKS
TO BE THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FURTHER UPDATES IN
CASE FIRE PRODUCTS NEED TO BE ISSUED.
-078/JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page