997
FXUS65 KREV 262142
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
242 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY AND THURSDAY, LEADING TO
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW, MAINLY IN
CHURCHILL, LYON, MINERAL, MONO, AND PERSHING COUNTIES.
* A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. REMAINS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US, WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THIS SETUP
MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER WESTERN NV. CONTINUED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN & RANGE.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA.
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE (15%), PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE SUCH AS MINERAL COUNTY, WITH A
<10% CHANCE OF THUNDER. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE A NOTABLE CONCERN, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY REACHING 25-30 MPH,
AND UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN WIND-PRONE AREAS OF NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN, WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS EXPOSED AREAS. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES
(20%) IN THE EVENING, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, MINERAL,
CHURCHILL, AND PERSHING COUNTIES. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS FAIRLY
STRATIFORM IN NATURE, HOWEVER, THERE'S A 15% CHANCE OF A FEW
STRONGER STORMS THAT PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS THE WEAK
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NBM GUIDANCE HAS 50-80% POPS
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
COULD START AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SOME AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NOTICEABLY, GENERALLY
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S FOR THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
MID-70S FOR THE SIERRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
(15-20%), PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THOUGH RIDGE
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE GREATER LAKE TAHOE
AREA.
THE WEAK SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST, WITH LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES POSSIBLE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO A RETURN OF DRY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VALLEY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH SIERRA COMMUNITIES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES. AREA WINDS BETWEEN 20Z-03Z GENERALLY WILL GUST UP TO
AROUND 20-25 KTS, WITH PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER SEEING
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE NV BASIN AND RANGE AREA AS WELL AS S. MONO COUNTY BETWEEN
20Z-04Z TONIGHT. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON
THURSDAY WITH FORECAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.
-078/JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW IN FAR NE CA AND FAR NW NV. SW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25-35 MPH (ISOLATED POCKETS OF UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN WIND
PRONE AREAS) AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 8-20% ARE IN THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT
ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-40% WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER RECOVERIES OF
35- 50% ON THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(~20-60%) ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON FRIDAY REDUCING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. -078/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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