280
FXUS65 KREV 020819
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
119 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30-35 MPH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
* RAIN CHANCES MOVE INTO NE CA AND THE TAHOE BASIN OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (45-70%)
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
METEOROLOGICAL FALL STARTED YESTERDAY, AND BOY DID IT DELIVER!
FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWER VALLYES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS START TO FLIRT WITH NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT FOR
SIERRA COMMUNITIES, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY, WITH WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. AS SUCH, THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 11 PM THURSDAY, AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE LAKES IN
MONO COUNTY (TOPAZ LAKE, MONO LAKE, BRIDGEPORT RESERVOIR, AND
CROWLEY LAKE). WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG US-395, INCLUDING NEAR
HONEY LAKE AND WASHOE VALLEY, MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH BOTH
DAYS. IMPACTS FROM WIND BOTH DAYS WILL INCLUDE REDUCED VISIBILITY
FROM BLOWING DUST ON DESERT SINKS AND PLAYAS, INCREASED RISK FOR
SMALL CRAFT CAPSIZING DUE TO CHOPPY LAKE WATERS, AIRCRAFT
TURBULENCE, AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES COME UP STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PEAKING
IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO NE CA, THE TAHOE BASIN, AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE BLACK ROCK
DESERT. FOOTHILLS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT MAY ALSO SEE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
0.02-0.25", WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST. STORM CHANCES REMAIN 10% OR LESS, THOUGH ADDITIONAL FORCING
ALOFT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVE ENOUGH TO
GET A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
MORNING FRIDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
HAVE LABOR DAY WEEKEND PLANS? THEY MAY OR MAY NOT GET A BIT SOGGY.
THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF TROPICAL
STORM MARIE THOUGH CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY JUST
MATERIALIZE AS CLOUDY SKIES, THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PAINTS
15-20% CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME SO MAKE SURE
TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. FL100
WINDS OF 40-50 KTS WILL INTRODUCE LLWS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE TO ALL SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT SITES. AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING DUST MAY IMPACT KLOL, KNFL, KHTH AS WELL
AS AVIATION OPERATIONS ON THE BLACK ROCK DESERT (88NV) TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR KTRK/KTVL THURSDAY, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CIGS/VIS. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
SIERRA TERMINALS EXCEPT KMMH.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ002>004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY CAZ071>073.
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