247
FXUS65 KREV 052048
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
148 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS, AND IMPACTS TO
HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND RECREATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR
THE OREGON BORDER ON SUNDAY.
* MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS PREVAIL NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIKELY (50-60%) RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (25%) IN NORTHERN WASHOE AND LASSEN
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE SURPRISE VALLEY. FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
MODELS SHOW MEAGER CAPE VALUES OF ONLY 100-300 J/KG, BUT DECENT
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES UP TO 50 KTS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF OUTFLOW GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH AND INFREQUENT
LIGHTNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT,
WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE UP TO 0.10 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY UP
TO 0.25 INCHES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISTRICT, WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL COMMONLY GUST UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND
50-60 MPH ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREA LAKES. FURTHER SOUTH IN MONO, MINERAL,
AND S. LYON COUNTIES, WE WILL KEEP THE STRONG WINDS, BUT HUMIDITY
IS MUCH LOWER PRODUCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (MORE DETAILS IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).
THE SETUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK FEATURES AN UPPER
LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS GIVES A ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO AREA STARTING
LATE TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASES BY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE
BASIN SOUTHWARD INTO MONO COUNTY. BY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS STILL HIGH. THE
UNKNOWNS ARE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US,
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE EAST PACIFIC, AND A POSSIBLE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW, TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL TREND WARMER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
-MCKELLAR
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE S/SW WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO MORE W/SW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE ON SUNDAY, RENEWING LLWS AND
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE POTENTIAL FOR ALL MAIN TERMINALS. GUSTY
WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KHTH-
KNFL-KLOL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHEAST CA
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY
PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER
CEILINGS.
THERE ARE LOW 20% CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG AT KTRK FROM 09-15Z
SUNDAY.
-SALAS/MCKELLAR
FIRE WEATHER
SW/W GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AND RH REDUCTIONS TO 15% OR LESS WILL
SUPPORT 2-6 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS VALLEYS AND
MIDSLOPE AREAS OF MONO, S. LYON, AND MINERAL COUNTIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION FOLLOWING A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES WILL BE MODERATE TO GOOD (UP TO 50-70%)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHALFANT
VALLEY WHERE RH STRUGGLES TO 40%.
FARTHER NORTH, HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL MITIGATE FIRE CONCERNS SOMEWHAT,
BUT SIMILAR WIND GUSTS WILL AT LEAST ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA FRONT INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ001-
002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
CAZ071>073.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page