970
FXUS65 KREV 112113
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
213 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
* VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* A GRADUAL WARMING TREND RESUMES STARTING TUESDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURNING AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION TODAY, WHICH FORECAST MODELS PROJECT TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. THE COLDEST MORNING OF THIS
WEEK WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST BETWEEN
THE MIDDLE 20S AND LOWER 30S RANGE IN W NEVADA AND IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S IN SIERRA COMMUNITIES. PLEASE BE PREPARED FOR
THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND REMEMBER TO PROTECT THE 4 P'S FROM
THE COLD: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT, CURRENT RADAR RETURNS
SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
AROUND THE RENO AREA THAT ARE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PERSHING
COUNTY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE CAMS PROJECT THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO POP UP AROUND THE RENO AREA AND FOLLOW THE SAME
TRACK GOING INTO THE EVENING THOUGH COVERAGE DOES SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NE CA AS WELL. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS AROUND A 15-35%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT IN THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS
DROP DOWN TO 6.5-7.5 KFT BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE SIERRA FOR TONIGHT LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50-70% FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-80 WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCES IN THE SIERRA. PORTIONS TO THE
NORTH OF I-80 LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 15% AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE TO AROUND 7-7.5 KFT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOWER 6-
6.5 KFT OVERNIGHT. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
THEY APPEARED TO HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA SEEING A 50-70% NBM PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW.
FOR NOW, THERE IS STILL A 20-40% PROBABILITY TO SEE UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW ON THE TOP OF MT. ROSE AND A 40-70% PROBABILITY FOR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TO SEE THE SAME. THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A LESS THAN 10% FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THERE
IS STILL SOME GOOD UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM RACHEL REMNANTS HAS
BEEN PULLED MORE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECAST MODEL RUNS. SO PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR
MORE FORECAST UPDATES AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
ON TUESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FARTHER
EAST. THIS SIGNALS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRIER WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL AREA TAF
SITES, WITH A 15-35% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERALLY IN THE
SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST
TERMINALS LOOK TO HAVE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH 11/02-03Z.
SIERRA TERMINALS COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND
50-70% BY MONDAY AFTERNOON GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
CAUSING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT SIERRA TERMINALS. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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