965
FXUS65 KREV 122200
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
* VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
FOR THE REST OF TODAY GOING INTO TONIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW OVER SE OREGON TRAVELING DOWN INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH
THIS PATTERN ALOFT TODAY, COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH, WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REGION CAUSES DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. PREPARE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS WELL WITH W.NEVADA
SEEING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RANGE AND SIERRA
COMMUNITIES BEING IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S RANGE. REMEMBER
TO PROTECT THE 4 P'S FROM THE COLD: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE LATEST RUN FOR THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN AT 15-40% THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 30-70% IN THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHER
END CHANCES SEEN IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NBM, SNOW LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TO
BE AROUND 6500-7500 FT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 6000 FT AROUND 8-11
PM IN THE TAHOE AREA AND AROUND 11 PM - 2 AM IN MONO COUNTY. BY
TUESDAY MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000-5000 FT IN
THE TAHOE AREA AND AROUND 4500-5500 FT IN MONO COUNTY. SO EXPECT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH SHOWERS THAT OCCUR TODAY, WITH
RAIN GRADUALLY TURNING TO SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT. FORTUNATELY,
THE HRRR SHOWS MOST SHOWER CHANCES FADING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARRIVE, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH OF US-50 INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE BE CAREFUL IF TRAVELING IN THE REGION TONIGHT AS ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE ROADS SLICK AND WET SURFACES MAY FREEZE
WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP. VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED AS WELL DUE TO
SNOWFALL.
AS BETTER MOISTURE IS WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA, CURRENT
QPF VALUES WITH SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING LOOK TO RANGE
BETWEEN A TRACE AND ABOUT 0.2 INCHES. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
SHOW AROUND A 20-50% CHANCE OF 1+ INCH OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SIERRA WITH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SEEING A 20-40%
CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES. LOWER ELEVATIONS THAT SEE SNOWFALL COULD
RECEIVE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IF SNOW COLLECTS.
THERE'S ALSO LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN
SHOWERS TODAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR BEING CAPABLE OF
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ON TUESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS FARTHER EAST. THIS SIGNALS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS TOWARD THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A
POSSIBLE COOLING TREND AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. -078
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE SIERRA DUE TO SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND
13/06-07Z. KRNO/KCXP/KMEV/ SEE N/NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25
KTS THROUGH AROUND 13/04-05Z WHEN THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. KTVL SEES A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 13/04Z AS WELL. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA
(INCLUDING KMCK) HAVE A 35-65% CHANCE THROUGH 13/07Z THAT WILL
TAPER OFF COMPLETELY BY AROUND 13/12Z. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A
20-30% CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF MORNING FOG FORMING EARLY TUESDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF KTRK SHOULD SHOWERS OCCUR NEARBY TODAY.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEGINS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SIERRA RIDGE
WINDS MAY ALSO GUST UP TO AROUND 50 KTS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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