720
FXUS65 KREV 142012
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
112 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
* INCREASED EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
STRONGER RIDGE TOP WINDS PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED WINDS
FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST BUILDS INLAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER SOUTHERN CA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING EAST TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH. HOWEVER, FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THESE EAST
WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY STRONGER, WITH RIDGE TOP GUSTS INCREASING TO
40-50 MPH THURSDAY MORNING AND PEAK GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY MIX DOWN TO LAKE TAHOE THURSDAY
NIGHT, PRODUCING A SHORT PERIOD OF CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
WESTERN SHORES.
BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE TOP WINDS EASE AS THE LOW DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH, BUT THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE AFTERNOON GUSTS AGAIN LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH, PARTS OF MINERAL COUNTY AND AREAS NEAR
THE OR BORDER MAY SEE GUSTS INCREASE TO 30 MPH. IN THESE AREAS
WITH THE ENHANCED GUSTS, A SHORT PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS COULD ARISE AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DROPS TO THE 15-20%
RANGE.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY, THEN MORE
TYPICAL ZEPHYR-TYPE SW-W BREEZES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A STEADY CLIMB, WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 70 DEGREES
FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
BY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST EFFECT OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD INCREASE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO START TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH HUMIDITY NOT AS LOW COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND.
THEN FROM TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS DIPPING INTO BELOW-AVERAGE TERRITORY, MAINLY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH DIGS
FARTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE CA COAST WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AND ALSO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCES (30-50%) TO AREAS SOUTH OF US-50 WITH LESSER 15-30%
PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE. THESE "SHOULDER SEASON" STORMS WHEN
INVOLVING CLOSED UPPER LOWS TEND TO HAVE A LARGER SPREAD OF
OUTCOMES (RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE) AND THIS SYSTEM IS NO
EXCEPTION. CURRENT LIQUID PRECIP AND MOUNTAIN SNOW PROJECTIONS ARE
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FROM TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (UP TO 0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50" MAINLY SOUTH OF US-50, AND SNOWFALL UP TO 3"
ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MONO COUNTY), ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE WETTER
SCENARIOS COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. MJD
AVIATION
* VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO CLOUD COVER.
* LIGHT WINDS (GUSTS 15 KT OR LESS) AT THE MAIN TERMINALS TODAY.
EAST WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY BETWEEN 20-02Z WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT
FOR MOST MAIN TERMINALS. SIMILAR SPEEDS WITH MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER FL100 EAST
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, LEADING TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE NEAR AND
WEST OF THE SIERRA AND CARSON RANGE. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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