078
FXUS65 KREV 170805
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
105 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
* INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS AND
POSE IMPACTS TO RECREATION AND TRAVEL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
* CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INCREASES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S EACH DAY.
NIGHTS WILL BE MILD FOR MOST AREAS, BUT COLD-PRONE SIERRA VALLEYS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE TWENTIES EACH
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, THEN
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH.
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. S/SW GUSTS ARE FAVORED TO REACH 25-
35 MPH ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA AND FAR W NEVADA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, RIDGETOPS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 50-70 MPH AT
TIMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS INCLUDE CHOPPY
WATERS ON LAKES IN THIS AREA -- INCLUDING LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID
LAKE -- AND TURBULENT FLIGHTS. A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM NE
CALIFORNIA INTO NW NEVADA. GUSTY WINDS SHIFT TO S MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE FINALLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INCREASE BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT, BUT A LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT ON
THE TROUGH PROGRESSION LENDS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK. TUESDAY IS TRENDING DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWER AND
FARTHER OFFSHORE, FAVORING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WETTEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 HAVE THE BEST CHANCES (50-80%)
FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, WITH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY NORTH OF
TAHOE/RENO. THERE MAY ALSO BE MINOR SNOW IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG
HIGHER SIERRA PASSES IN MONO COUNTY WHERE THERE IS 50-70% CHANCE OF
4" OR MORE OF TOTAL SNOWFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS LOWERING FROM THE
60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY TO THE 40S AND 50S BY THURSDAY. NIGHTS ALSO
BECOME CHILLY FOR MOST AREAS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
-SALAS
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS TODAY BECOMING TYPICAL WEST BREEZES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE
LLWS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CONCERNS.
-SALAD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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