869
FXUS65 KREV 171911
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1211 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
* INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS AND
POSE IMPACTS TO RECREATION AND TRAVEL MONDAY.
* RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND SUNNY WEEKEND CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TRACK/POSITION
OF THE LOW AS IT GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, THEN MEANDERS OFF THE CA COAST MONDAY-TUESDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING INLAND WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
INITIAL HAZARD IS THE INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH
IMPACTS TO FIRE AND RECREATION FOR MONDAY. IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED TO THE SIERRA INTO NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV AS
THE LOW SPLITS FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CA
COAST. NOT A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN PEAK GUST FORECAST AS SURFACE
GUSTS IN THE MODELS REMAIN NEAR AND BELOW 30 MPH, BUT THE FLOW AT
10,000-15,000 FEET MSL COULD SUPPORT STRONGER GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
FOR 2-5 HOURS AND SIERRA RIDGE WINDS UP NEAR 60-70 MPH.
AS THE LOW PUSHES INLAND IT WILL DRAG MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISING TO
50-60% WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. WARM SURFACE AIR, AND INSTABILITY WITH
THE LOW OPENS THE DOOR FOR A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK MAKES LOCATING THE RAIN/SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST
DIFFICULT, BUT FOR NOW ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A 50/50 CHANCE OF
0.25-0.50 INCH OF LIQUID AND 10-20% CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-80. WHILE THE LOW ORIGINATES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA, THE AIR MASS WITH IT WARMS WHEN IT WOBBLES OFF THE CA
COAST LEAVING SNOW LEVEL FORECAST NO LOWER THAN 7000-8000 FEET.
DENSE-WET SNOW CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM
CARSON PASS SOUTHWARD TO MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS; WITH
50-60% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES, AND 10-20% CHANCE OF 12+ INCHES. IF
YOU HAVE PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE HIGH SIERRA PASSES OR BE IN THE
BACKCOUNTY LATER NEXT WEEK, SNOW MAY BE IMPACTFUL. BRONG
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WEST BREEZES RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND S/SW SURFACE WINDS TO
30 KTS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BRONG
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 30
MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR THE SIERRA NORTH OF
HIGHWAYS 50/88 INTO PLUMAS-LASSEN AND INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY,
AND THE RENO-CARSON-DOUGLAS-STOREY AREA. WINDS ALONG WITH RECENT
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE THREAT AND MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BRONG
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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