254
FXUS65 KRIW 191901
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1201 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK TODAY WITH BREEZY WINDS. LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW ENDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
- WARMING AND MAINLY DRY TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY, SUNDAY TO THE
EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
IR CURRENTLY DEPICTS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM STILL ADVECTING
AMPLY CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERWHELMING YET
AGAIN, SO CUT POPS AND QPF ONCE AGAIN FOR WHAT THE ACTUAL IS
OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE YESTERDAY BACK TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN LOW. GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH
WILL BE COMMON FOR THE WIND RIVER TO BIGHORN BASINS, WITH THE
WIND CORRIDOR AREAS ALONG I-25 TO I-80 SEEING GUSTS OVER 35-40
MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING SKIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AS CONVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES. MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS THE JET PATTERN STILL
PUSHES THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 40S WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND 50S TO THE EAST.
THE MAIN FINGER OF THE PFJ WILL START TO SLOWLY PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL INCREASE SNOW
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DEEPER ALONG THE COAST WITH
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
PVA ANOMALIES THROUGH THE CWA. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
BE ACTIVE WITH THIS MAIN TROUGH BEFORE SEEING IT START TO PUSH
EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR THANKSGIVING. SNOW PROBABILITIES FOR OVER THE
WEEKEND AT LEAST, SHOWS AN OVER 70% FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH 50-60% OF 4 OR MORE
INCHES FOR LOWER WESTERN VALLEYS. MINIMAL AMOUNTS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE FOR THE LOWER BASINS. THIS IS EVEN WITH THE EC CORRECTION
OF THE PROB DATA, SO SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND AN AMOUNT THAT WILL
WARRANT SOME WINTER HEADLINES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS WILL DIG, BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THUS FAR,
SOUTHWARD CORRECTION OCCURS GREATLY WITH THE EC ALWAYS THE ONLY
ONE TO EVER HINT AT IT THIS FAR OUT. REGARDLESS, MODEL AGREEMENT
ON HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BACK INTO PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN WYOMING IMPACTING KJAC IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE DRY AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXCEPT AT KCPR
WHERE WINDS WILL AGAIN GUSTY BY 16Z WEDNESDAY.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...GERHARDT
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