512
FXUS65 KRIW 210938
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
238 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AGAIN AROUND CASPER.
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO WESTERN
WYOMING ON SATURDAY
- MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED, ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST THU NOV 21 2024
THINGS ARE MAINLY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
COWBOY STATE. WE DO HAVE A COUPLE OF MINOR CONCERNS FOR TODAY. THE
FIRST IS FOR THE GUSTY WIND, WHICH IS CONTINUING TONIGHT FROM MUDDY
GAP THROUGH CASPER WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH WIND IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART, WITH
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE GIVING AT MOST A 1 OUT OF 5 CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS PAST 50 MPH, AND EVEN THERE IT WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A PLACE LIKE OUTER DRIVE SOUTH OF
CASPER COULD SEE A COUPLE OF WIND GUSTS PAST 50 MPH, BUT THIS WOULD
BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. THE OTHER MINOR CONCERN IS
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS, BUT ONLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS AND THESE WOULD ONLY TOP
OUT AT AN INCH OR TWO. WITH FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST AND THE AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA MODIFYING SOMEWHAT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND
3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TOMORROW SNOW SHOWERS WILL END
ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA,
WIND SHOULD DECREASE FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
THINGS BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE WIND AND RAIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES TOWARD THE
STATE. AT THIS POINT, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR STORM. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND MAY SPLIT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THE
MAIN EFFECTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE AREAS THAT
EXPECT THE MOST SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS,
MAINLY SOUTHERN YELLOWSTONE AND THE TETONS. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
GIVES A GREATER THAN 4 IN 5 CHANCE OF 6 INCHES OF MORE OF SNOW FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALLER AREA OF AROUND A 1 IN 2
CHANCE IN THE SALT AND WYOMING RANGE. AS OF NOW THE CHANCES OF
WARNING LEVEL AMOUNTS ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. SO, IF ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED, IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE ADVISORIES. THE
VALLEYS SHOULD ONLY SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS AND WITH 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES STARTING AS HIGH AS 0 DEGREES CELSIUS, IT MAY START AS
RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH A MILD DAY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SUNDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NORMAL LEVELS. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ON THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
SOME JET ENERGY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SO FOR NOW IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED. ANOTHER PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY APPROACH MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW,
AGAIN, MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS WITH AREAS OF ENERGY THOUGH, SO
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF THERE IS AN EXCEPTION, IT WILL BE AT KJAC IF SHOWERS ARE
ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON THIS OCCURRING, HOWEVER, AND HAVE KEPT VFR CEILINGS FOR NOW
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, KCPR WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND, GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...MYERS
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