491  
FXUS61 KRLX 170721  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
221 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 813 PM SATURDAY...  
 
EXTENDED LOW CLOUD COVER A FEW MORE HOURS AS MODELS AND LOWER-  
LEVEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING IT WILL HOLD INTO THE NIGHT  
BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ASOS/AWOS TERMINALS SUCH AS KCMH,  
KSYM, AND KSJS TO OUR WEST ARE STILL REPORTING LOW-LEVEL  
OVERCAST; KCVG THOUGH IS REPORTING CLEAR CONDITIONS. THAT SAID,  
EXPECTING TO HOLD ONTO THIS LOW-LEVEL DECK FOR A BIT LONGER  
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDES COMPLETELY.  
 
STAGGERED TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUITE AS FAST, AS A RESULT  
OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.  
 
AS OF 1220 PM SATURDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY  
THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT LAKE  
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BENEATH A STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT  
EXPECTED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET  
OUT OF THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON, ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF  
THE YEAR.  
 
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS  
TONIGHT REPLACED BY THIN CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARED ENERGY JET  
MOVING OVERHEAD. WITH LIGHT WINDS, MOIST GROUND, AND AT LEAST  
MODESTLY EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING, SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME  
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN COLD AIR DRAINAGE.  
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF CLOUD  
COVER MAY HELP LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY  
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE  
HIGH WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE CONTINGENT ON HOW QUICKLY WE CAN  
CLEAR OUT, FOR NOW THE FORECAST REFLECTS NEAR FULL CLEARING OF THE  
LOW LEVEL DECK BY MIDNIGHT.  
 
ONCE ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING, FAIR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WITH VERY DRY AIR  
OVERHEAD UP THROUGH AROUND H250. WITH SUNSHINE ONLY FILTERED BY HIGH  
CIRRUS, DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RISE INTO THE  
LOWER 60S, AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-  
NOVEMBER.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
* MOSTLY DRY MONDAY, THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS A SYSTEM  
APPROACHES.  
* MILD TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY  
AND PULLS A FRONT DOWN TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WHILE  
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING  
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF  
THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE  
BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT  
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS  
APPROACHING SYSTEM LIFTS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN  
DIRECTS A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARDS THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH DAILY  
HIGHS AVERAGING 50S FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND 60S FOR THE  
REST OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE  
40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
* LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.  
* WINDS BECOME STRONG ALONG AND BEHIND A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.  
* RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPS FOR  
THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWLANDS MAINLY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAIN.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SWEEPS  
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN TAKES ITS  
TIME MEANDERING EAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE UPPER  
TROUGHING LINGERS OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE PASSAGE OF  
THE FRONT, THEN A BRIEF LULL COULD OCCUR BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS  
AROUND BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXTENDS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MID WEEK FRONT CROSSES,  
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT  
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DURING THIS  
TIME, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND REACH 25 TO 30 MPH  
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE  
AREA. IN THE MOUNTAINS, A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS  
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE  
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS  
A 60 TO 70 PERCENT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER TO CAUSE MINOR  
IMPACTS IN THIS AREA, BUT ONLY A 20 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF  
MODERATE IMPACTS.  
 
ALTHOUGH RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE  
LOWLANDS, SNOW COULD PERIODICALLY MIX IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR  
EARLY MORNING HOURS LATE IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, HOWEVER,  
REGARDING EXTENT OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 1228 AM SUNDAY...  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HOW MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS  
DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH PKB AND CKB BEING THE LAST  
TO CLEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
UPPER LEVEL THIN CLOUDS PASSING BY. OTHERWISE, NEAR CALM WINDS WILL  
ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND  
AREAS THAT ARE STILL WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY  
AFFECT EKN FIRST WHERE TEMPERATURES HAS REACHED THEIR DEWPOINT AT  
THE MOMENT OF WRITING. FOG ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY  
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WV AND VA. IT STILL  
UNCERTAIN WHETHER DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT HTS. INSTEAD, BELIEVE  
VCFG AND/OR BCFG WILL PREVAIL AT HTS AND CRW. PERHAPS MOST SITES  
MAY GET A MORNING SURPRISE WHEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR UNDER  
DENSE FOG EMERGE RIGHT DURING SUNRISE, EXPECT FOR BKW WHERE VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT ALL FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE  
BY 13- 14Z SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE CALM FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT; BECOMING LIGHT AND  
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND  
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FORMATION OF DENSE FOG MAY VARY  
FROM FORECAST.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SUN 11/17/24  
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18  
EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...  
PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE MID-WEEK WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN  
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY MOUNTAIN SNOW.  
 
 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB  
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC  
SHORT TERM...JLB  
LONG TERM...JLB  
AVIATION...ARJ  
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