955
FXUS61 KRLX 180539
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1239 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLDER CONDITIONS
AFTER WEDNESDAY YIELDS WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO RETURN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...
UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.
SEEING VERY DRY DEW POINTS AS LOW AS AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THESE DRY DEW
POINTS BEING CARRIED BY LIGHT, YET STEADY SSW WINDS, BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY RECOVER AS WINDS BECOME EVEN LIGHTER TO EVEN CALM IN
SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 1220 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION IN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS WE CATCH A GLANCING BLOW FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITING PA. COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO THESE LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN, BUT ANY COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. COULD ALSO SEE A STRAY SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE
FROM THIS DECK TOWARD DAYBREAK AND WILL CODE UP SOME SCATTERED NON-
ACCUMULATING SHOWERS. DESPITE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD STILL YIELD DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
NORTH OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...
THE LAST DRY DAY OF THE WEEK COMES TO A CLOSE MONDAY EVENING AS
A DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AIMS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL
GLIDE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, WHILE
SWINGING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES HOVERING OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD ALL RAIN WHEN SHOWERS
ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SIGNALS THE START OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE LAST AFTERNOON OF MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY, AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS STEERED OUT OF THE SOUTH.
ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS WILL YIELD A GLOOMY END TO THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A NEARBY COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
WEATHER AS WE OPEN UP THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* MIDWEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN ACTIVE WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
* COLDER AIR INVADES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, PROMOTING A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
* OSCILLATING TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD FLUCTUATING PRECIPITATION
TYPES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
* STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT FIRST MADE ITS APPEARANCE DURING
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO
UNVEIL ACTIVE WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE LONG TERM. THE COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS BY A
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS OPENS THE GATES TO MUCH COLDER
AIR TRICKLING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, COUPLED WITH A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW PIVOTS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ORCHESTRATING THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL EXTEND
RESIDENCY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RAIN SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TUMBLE
BELOW FREEZING. THE CHANGEOVER SPREADS DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR BEFORE SUNRISE. RAIN PROSPERS FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE(S). GUSTS ABOVE 25-30MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES AND 15-25MPH IN OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FOR THURSDAY: A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR DROPPING DOWN
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CREATE A NEW AREA OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LEAVES A SMALL RIBBON OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS THAT REMAINS
ABOVE FREEZING, YIELDING A CONTINUOUS ALL-RAIN EVENT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. AFTER SUNSET, TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN AND ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTES AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST AREA. A STRIPE OF RAIN/SNOW STILL LOOKS PRESENT
FROM I-79 DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, WHILE AREAS EAST
AND WEST TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN
TO SEE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TRANSPIRING
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE ENRICHING SURGE OF
MOISTURE. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITHIN THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETUP. GUST POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: DAY AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
DICTATE RAIN TO BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE
REMAINING COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SNOW TO
PERSIST. ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM FEASIBLE
WITH THIS CURRENT PATTERN OUTLOOK. WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STRENGTHEN BEFORE DAWN AND CONTINUE TO HOWL ON THE
UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40MPH. THIS REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
LOWLAND WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OF AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THIS
TIME.
WPC HAS EXPANDED ITS COVERAGE OF AREAS THAT MAY OBSERVE AT
LEAST MINOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS TO NOW INCLUDE PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL LOWLANDS, ALBEIT A LOW LIKELIHOOD BELOW 10%. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,000FT AGL HAVE ALSO SEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE TO
AN 80% CHANCE FOR OVERALL IMPACTS WITH THIS LATE WORK WEEK
SYSTEM. CERTAINLY A TIMEFRAME TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS HONE IN ON TIMING AND ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA SHOULD AID IN
LIMITING FOG FORMATION BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. WHILE
ONE OR TWO TERMINALS COULD TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE TO MVFR,
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
WINDS REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 11/18/24
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN BY MID-WEEK,
AND EVENTUALLY IN MOUNTAIN SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB
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