460
FXUS61 KRLX 181126
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
626 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
MILD AND MOSTLY DRY TODAY. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLDER CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY YIELDS WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO RETURN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 415 AM MONDAY...
FRESHENED UP TEMPERATURES AS SOME LOCATIONS ARE TRENDING A
LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
A FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA TODAY AND THEN LINGERS THERE
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. MOISTURE AND PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
CREEP IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY.
REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO REACH 60S WITHIN THE LOWLANDS TODAY, WHILE THE
MOUNTAINS RANGE FROM 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S BENEATH AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 341 AM MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. THEN,
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST H850 WIND (ABOUT 40 KNOTS) BRINGS DECENT
MOIST AND WAA TO THE AREA, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 INCHES (+3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY) AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS WETTING
RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS COULD RANGE FROM
0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS,
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND
AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING. GUSTS ABOVE 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES AND 15-25 MPH IN OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO CHURN ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* COLDER AIR IN PLACE PROMOTES A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
* OSCILLATING TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD FLUCTUATING PRECIPITATION TYPES
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
BY THURSDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW,
PROVIDING AN AREA OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. AND YET ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF
VORTICITY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SWITCH BACK TO LIQUID
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS, AND BACK TO SNOW DURING
NIGHTTIME THURSDAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY
LATE SATURDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST PATTERN,
PROVIDING ENHANCED-LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
AND ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WV SATURDAY, FINALLY TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
WPC HAS EXPANDED ITS COVERAGE OF AREAS THAT MAY OBSERVE AT
LEAST MINOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL LOWLANDS, ALBEIT A LOW LIKELIHOOD BELOW 10%. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,000FT AGL HAVE ALSO SEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE TO
AN 80% CHANCE FOR OVERALL IMPACTS WITH THIS LATE WORK WEEK
SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP ON FRIDAY PROVIDING WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
EXPECT PORTION OF H850 WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS UNDER CAA TO MIX
DOWN AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WHILE A FRONT STALLS TO
THE NORTH TODAY. MAINLY LOW-END VFR AND POCKETS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME FOG MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM LATE TONIGHT;
HOWEVER, EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TODAY, AND CALM TO LIGHT TONIGHT. THE
DIRECTION PRIMARILY REMAINS SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY, THEN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER MIGHT REACH
ONE OR TWO TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON CLOUD COVER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 11/18/24
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN BY MID-WEEK,
AND EVENTUALLY IN MOUNTAIN SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB
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