525
FXUS61 KRLX 201829
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN
BRINGS WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 915 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING, WHILE LIGHT, SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHER
THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOG AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERS TO THE WEST.
DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLIDES EAST AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW
WILL SWEEP BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN COVERAGE SWIFTLY TAPERS OFF IN ITS WAKE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE USHERED
INTO THE AREA, WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS BY THE END OF
THE DAY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE THEN SPREADS ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY, THEN
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION THAT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IS MORE LIKELY
TO TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES, THEN
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE MID 20S TO 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH COLDER AIR, AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TAKING HOLD
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION AND FORCING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW
OCCURRING ON FRIDAY, AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH AND
EAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH, CARVING OUT A DEEP
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT THAT EXPECT
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ABOVE 2500 FEET
ELEVATION. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD, OWING TO CAA AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINTER HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
EVENING, WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND FLOW
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE LAKES/UPSLOPE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE, AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKE HOLD TEMPORARILY.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE IFR RESTRICTIONS. OUTSIDE
OF THE SHOWERS, EXPECT MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT,
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING,
CAUSING MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M L M H H H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L H H M M M L L M M M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, IN
PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ033-034-039-040-515>519-521-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR WVZ520-522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
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