573
FXUS61 KRLX 210341
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1041 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN
BRINGS WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
AS OF 600 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST EXITED THE AREA TOWARD THE EAST AND
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO CALM DOWN A BIT, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST NEAR
THE CHARLESTON AND THE TRI-STATE AREAS. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT
AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT TO WHERE WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEAR
SKIES FOR A SHORT WHILE TONIGHT BEFORE MORE CLOUDS FILL IN FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS, COULD POSSIBLY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. COULD
SEE A BURST OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE CLEARING
ARRIVES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS A LOBE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING. THE LOWLANDS WILL GENERALLY TO TOO
WARM FOR SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER TO ACCUMULATE, WITH UP
TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH COLDER AIR, AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TAKING HOLD
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION AND FORCING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW
OCCURRING ON FRIDAY, AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH AND
EAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH, CARVING OUT A DEEP
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIMES. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT THAT EXPECT
SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ABOVE 2500 FEET
ELEVATION. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD, OWING TO CAA AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINTER HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
EVENING, WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND FLOW
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE LAKES/UPSLOPE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE, AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKE HOLD TEMPORARILY.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 620 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA AND GUSTY CONDITONS WILL
PERSIST AT CKB/EKN/BKW FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
THE WINDS RELAX A BIT, EXCEPT FOR BKW. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP
BY LATE MORNING EVERYWHERE AND MVFR CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BY EARLY TO MID-
AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXPECTED VIS RESTRICTIONS UNDER ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CATEGORIES COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 11/21/24
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, IN
PERIODS OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ033-034-039-040-515>517-519-521-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR WVZ518-520-522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ
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