431
FXUS61 KRNK 141745
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
RAIN IS GOING TO BE STEADILY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEAKENS. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1232 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAW WITH A COLD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
2) DRYING OUT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
3) SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY COULD TOPPLE A
FEW WEAKER OR DEAD TREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TYPICAL AREAS OF OUR
FORECAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VA LEADING TO A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH
AT THE HIGHER RIDGES, BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MILLER B SETUP WITH MAIN LOW NOW OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS FORMING OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW TAKING DOMINANCE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW TO OUR WEST
WEAKEN. THIS WILL SLINGSHOT THE RAIN TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE UPSLOPE KEEPS SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS ALL LIQUID.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST OF NC FRIDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP TO ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALL TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, THEN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S
EAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1). COOL, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 445 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). A RETURN TO MILDER, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
2). NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
A RATHER CONVOLUTED PATTERN EVOLVES ONCE AGAIN AS THE LOW FROM
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND CUBA WHILE AN EVEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OCCLUDES
AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POTENTIALLY POTENTIALLY EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY SLOW WITH MOVING A LARGE FULL LATITUDE CUTOFF LOW
THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND LIFT'S OUR VERY SLOWLY AFTER
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS LIFTING TO OUR NORTHWEST, WE
WILL ONLY RECEIVE A DAY OR SO OF LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND FOG.
TOO MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ACCENTED RANGE MODELS TO HONE IN
ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS MOSTLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE FROM TUE-THU OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN
THE MID 60S AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER POOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, AS EVEN ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT VSBYS/CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY UNDER 6SM AND 1000FT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE
THIS OCCURS, SHOWERS WILL END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT EXPECT
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR LWB/BLF INTO LATE FRI MORNING BUT TOO
SCATTERED FOR TAF INCLUSION.
WE SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE BETWEEN 13-15Z IN THE EAST,
WHILE SUB-VFR LINGERS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING COULD START TO GUST TO 20KT+ AROUND
BLF/LWB/BCB, BUT MORESO FRI AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR ON VSBY/CIG VALUES BUT HIGHER THAT IT WILL
STAY SUB-VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE/AVERAGE ON CLEARING FRI MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER
LWB AND BLF MAY SEE PROLONGED UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE EXTENDED AVIATION SCENARIO IS MODERATE
TO HIGH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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