116
FXUS61 KRNK 142339
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
639 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
RAIN IS GOING TO BE STEADILY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEAKENS. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1232 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAW WITH A COLD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
2) DRYING OUT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
3) SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY COULD TOPPLE A
FEW WEAKER OR DEAD TREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TYPICAL AREAS OF OUR
FORECAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VA LEADING TO A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH
AT THE HIGHER RIDGES, BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MILLER B SETUP WITH MAIN LOW NOW OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS FORMING OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW TAKING DOMINANCE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW TO OUR WEST
WEAKEN. THIS WILL SLINGSHOT THE RAIN TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE UPSLOPE KEEPS SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS ALL LIQUID.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST OF NC FRIDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP TO ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALL TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, THEN MILDER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S
EAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM EST THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE WARM EACH DAY.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER ALL STATES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY, HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE,
SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WARMER EACH DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND LOW TO MID 60S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SUNDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 60S EAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 7F TO 10F WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY
COME AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AS A GULF DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. SOME
MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST STARTING WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10F TO 15F WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 640 PM EST THURSDAY...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOW CEILINGS
FOR MOST, AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FOG AND RAIN. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN PERSISTS OVER THE VA
PIEDMONT, AND SCATTERED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
CEILINGS LIFTING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AROUND 15Z OR SO FOR KBCB,
KROA, KDAN, AND KLYH. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KLWB AND KBLF.
WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY, BUT WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOSTLY MIDDAY FRIDAY, THOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BANKED ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND SO KLWB AND KBLF WILL LIKELY
BE SUB-VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT/00Z
SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE AREA, IMPROVING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
PERSISTING IN THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON SPECIFIC VALUES FOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER
LWB AND BLF MAY SEE PROLONGED UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE EXTENDED AVIATION SCENARIO IS MODERATE
TO HIGH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AS/BMG/WP
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