597
FXUS61 KRNK 151730
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1230 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOWERS FADING THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY SOME RIDGETOP DRIZZLE WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE WV/FAR SW VA AND NC MTNS.
SHOWERS SHOULD FADE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LAST
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING EAST. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY STICK
AROUND ACROSS OUR SE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE
SUNSHINE RETURNS. BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN SOME OVERNIGHT BUT STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND BUILDING LOW LEVEL HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS, POSSIBLY 40S IN THE HIGHER RIDGES OF SE WV.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1220 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
2) A WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE,
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RUN 10F TO
15F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1224 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY
3) THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH MAY COME TO A HALT BY THURSDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE, EJECTING NORTH FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA, WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
OCCLUDED OVER NORTHERN OHIO THURSDAY, THEN WOBBLES EAST OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WESTERNS SLOPES COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
FALL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1223 PM EST FRIDAY...
CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES ACROSS BLF/LWB/BCB
INTO LATE TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT/SCATTER OUT
ELSEWHERETHIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BCB MAY GO SCATTERED AT
TIMES, BUT THINK IT WILL BE BKN V SCT THROUGH TONIGHT. BLF
APPEARS TO STAY MVFR WITH BKN CIGS INTO 18Z SATURDAY BUT SHOULD
BE SCATTERING OUT ENTERING THE AFTERNOON.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST AT TIMES TO 20KT+
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, BUT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING SATURDAY MORNING.
FOG DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE SO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS
AND WINDS AS WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
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