314
FXUS61 KRNK 161440
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL USHER IN STRONG, GUSTY WIND, ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOUNTAIN CLOUDS WILL ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
RNK 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, WITH JUST A HINT
OF MOISTURE UNDER 875MB, AND VIS SATELLITE/WEBCAMS INDICATE THIS
VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATOCU. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO
ERODE THIS THOUGH DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AS 8H THERMAL TROUGH ALSO WEAKENS AND PUSHES NORTH AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
2PM, BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
GREENBRIER TO RICHLANDS TIL DUSK, BUT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT AS
WELL.
FORECAST TEMPS WERE LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS ARE SLOW
TO ERODE, BUT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S, WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE
WV/FAR SW VA HIGHER RIDGES. MEANWHILE, SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
WIND SHOULD BOOST THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NIGHT FOG SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED LOW CLOUDS WEST OF A LINE FROM HOT
SPRINGS TO ROANOKE TO BOONE. STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WIND THIS MORNING. BUT AS THE WIND SPEED
DIMINISHES AND THE WIND DIRECTION TURNS MORE TO THE NORTH THE
UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF WHEN ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND CLOUDS ERODE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN A CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TODAY AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SUN WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER 60S. SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THAT WILL HAVE
CLOUDS LONGER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50. PLAN TO TREND LOWER ON
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SHELTERED AND ELEVATED
VALLEYS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF SHARPLY IN
THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE CHANCES OF
RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE 60S EACH
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT A MORE NOTEWORTHY
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR BY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD RISE ON TUESDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR
IMPRESSIVE AS CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD ROB SOME OF THE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, COLDER AIR, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD OCCUR DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE MODELS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ARRIVE AFTERWARDS TO SWING THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST AND BRING SHARPLY COLDER AIR. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND
INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARDS
THE FREEZING POINT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD END UP FIFTEEN TO TWENTY DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
EARLIER PART OF THE WORK WEEK, AND THE FIRST SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS OF THE SEASON MAY BE FLYING IN THE WIND AT TIMES WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 610 AM EST SATURDAY...
NIGHT FOG SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED EXTENSIVE MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS
WEST OF A LINE FROM KHSP TO KBCB TO KTNB. STILL ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NORTHWEST UPSLOPE WIND THIS MORNING. BUT
AS THE WIND SPEED DIMINISHES AND THE WIND DIRECTION TURNS MORE
TO THE NORTH THE UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
WHEN CLOUDS ERODE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE KBLF AND KLWB
BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 16-19Z/NOON-3PM. KBCB WILL RETURN TO VFR
BEFORE 16Z/NOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN A CALM
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR VISIBILITY AND WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/SH
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