138
FXUS61 KRNK 161725
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1225 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
USHER IN STRONG, GUSTY WIND, ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1213 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- QUIET WEATHER
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH MID 30S ELSEWHERE. CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN SLOPES WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE SOME FOG ALONG THE RIVERS IN THE
MORNING.
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AS SUNNY BUT STILL SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN MORE
THAN NOT. THIS IS DUE TO A RIDGE ALOFT OVERHEAD WITH A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO
WHICH WILL LIKELY SEND SOME HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY TOMORROW. THE
LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE HREF SHOWING A DAY WHERE FILTERED
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING AS WARM AS SOME MODELS SHOW BUT FOR NOW BLEND
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV/COOLER MET WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S
AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1219 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
2) CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN INCREASES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. THE
POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY,
LEADING TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. MONDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 70S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10F
TO 15F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
WE WILL BEGIN TO LOOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY SURFACE HIGH TUESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS AROUND THE OUTER RINGS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WAVE WILL NEED TO OVER COME SOME LINGERING LOW AND MID
LEVEL DRY AIR, BUT SHOULD START TO SEE RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT OF
RAIN AND/OR SNOW STARTING THURSDAY.
2) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY THEN
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A THREE PLUS DAY UPSLOPE EVENT. INITIALLY,
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, THEN AFTER THE PASSING OF A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR FULLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET. WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
BRISK AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A 50 KNOT CROSS-
BARRIER JET FORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
8F TO 12F WARMER THAN NORMAL. COME THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE 10F TO 15F COLDER
THAN NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND LOW TO MID 30S EAST.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS BLF/LWB WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
19-22Z. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN A
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING BUT AT THE MOMENT NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS ON TERMINALS.
VFR OTHERWISE, WITH HIGH CLOUDS AROUND SUNDAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/SH/WP
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