672
FXUS61 KRNK 171538
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1038 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION TODAY, WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL USHER IN
STRONG, GUSTY WIND, ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1025 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- FOG SLOW TO ERODE BUT SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON, WITH SUNSHINE
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
FOG THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE HARD TO ERODE AS THE SUN ANGLE IS
LOWER, AND THIS IS THE CASE THIS MORNING. AREA WEATHER CAMS/VIS
SATELLITE FINALLY SHOWING SOME LIFTING GOING ON, BUT FOG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREENBRIER AND NEW RIVER VALLEY MAY LINGER INTO
MIDDAY, OR WILL LIFT INTO A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MOST WILL HAVE SUNSHINE FILTERED AT TIMES BY
HIGH CLOUDS. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST, BUT HAVE
TONED BACK HIGHS IN THE NEW AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS DUE TO THE
SLOW EROSION OF FOG.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z RNK AMD GSO SOUNDINGS SHOWED A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. FOG AND FREEZING
FOG HAD FORMED ALONG AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THE VISIBILITY IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WAS LESS THAN 1/2
MILE. THE INVERSION INDICATED BY BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
THIS MORNING WAS STRONG, BUT VERY SHALLOW. A MAJORITY OF THE
FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL ERODE BY 9AM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH
CIRRUS TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO NBM FOR
LOWS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 155 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS DURING
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, AND COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WIDESPREAD
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD RISE ON TUESDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT AMOUNTS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE AS
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD ROB SOME OF THE MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE, WHICH WILL TRIGGER A CONSIDERABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW FOLLOWS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
2) THE GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PASS TO THE NORTH DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AFTER SPENDING THE MAJORITY OF OCTOBER AND THE FIRST
HALF OF NOVEMBER IN ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY, THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL FEEL QUITE SHOCKING AS THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT FIFTEEN TO TWENTY DEGREES COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, A NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME
RATHER STRONG. THERE IS A GROWING RISK FOR GUSTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, WHICH IS ADVERTISED IN THE HWO.
THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR AND THE STRONG WIND WILL DROP WIND
CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S DURING BOTH MORNINGS OF FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
UPSLOPE MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FIRST SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE
TO THE GROUND BEING SO WARM AND THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH
MELTING MAY OCCUR, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS. THE GUSTY
WIND AND THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SATURDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EST SUNDAY...
00Z RNK AMD GSO SOUNDINGS SHOWED A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LIFR TO IFR FOG
AND FREEZING FOG HAD FORMED ALONG AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, MAINLY
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE INVERSION INDICATED BY BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MORNING WAS STRONG, BUT VERY
SHALLOW. A MAJORITY OF THE FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL ERODE BY 14Z/9AM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. EXPECT ENOUGH CIRRUS TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CEILING AND WIND.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE EROSION OF THE FOG.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALONG WITH
STRONG, GUSTY WIND AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/EB
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