041
FXUS61 KRNK 180243
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
943 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEST
TO EAST MOVING FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT ONCE IT PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO END THE WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 930 PM EST SUNDAY...
WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS
COVERAGE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO QUICKLY DROP AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THIS COOLING TREND, TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO SHOW COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
EVENING, BUT THEN LEVELING OUT TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AS MORE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SEVERAL HOURS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT OR SLOW DOWN
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
TEMPERATURES, NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGE:
- CLOUDS INCREASE MONDAY, BUT REMAINING DRY.
FOG FINALLY ERODED, AND WILL HAVE HIGH CLOUDS MIXED WITH
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE MID-
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
WV/VA ALLEGHANYS REACHING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR
MONDAY. SOUNDING PROFILES STILL KEEP IT SOMEWHAT DRY SO THOUGH
CANNOT RULE A SPRINKLE OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER, AND FOG WILL BE MORE LIMITED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS/RIVER BOTTOMS TO LOWER TO
MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MORE SUNSHINE EAST MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL STILL BE
MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1205 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY,
LEADING TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. TUESDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORTWAVE TRACKING AROUND THE OUTER RINGS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NOON
TUESDAY, THEN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT BY THE EVENING
COMMUTE. MORE SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH.
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT WITH THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SINCE THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE STREAK WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT
STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
2) THE GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LAKE ERIE THURSDAY, THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE US FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY UPSLOPE
EVENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ENDING SOME TIME SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALLY,
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, THEN MIX WITH OR FULLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(ABOVE 3500 FEET) THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COUPLE OF INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THIS EVENT. AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE ARE
QUESTIONABLE AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A 50 KNOT CROSS-BARRIER JET FORMS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS BACK IN SUNDAY.
THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE 10F TO 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW
TO MID 30S EAST. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING COULD
BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT A MINIMUM TONIGHT; HOWEVER, SOME MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS
COULD BE POSSIBLE AT LWB, BLF, BCB, AND DAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STREAM INTO WESTERN
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 12 UTC AT LWB,
BLF, AND POSSIBLY BCB. THESE RESTRICTIONS DO NOT LOOK TO LAST
LONG, AND SHOULD LIFT PRIOR TO 18 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BEYOND 18 UTC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND
3-5 KNOTS LOOK TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THE MID MORNING HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO LOW IN THE ABOVE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
APPEARS SUB-VFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER TUESDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS, WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO IFR TO MVFR IN THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE
FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, SUB-VFR CIGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/WP
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