809
FXUS61 KRNK 180851
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND
PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT MUCH
COLDER AIR, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG, GUSTY WIND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS BASES WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN TONIGHT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
2. RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES PLACE DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA BY THE
BEGINNING OF TUESDAY, BUT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES, WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY EARLY
TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE AREA WILL STILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, SO EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO STILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL, UP TO 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA,
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VA, AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHEN A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND PUSHES THE REMAINING
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY, AND THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WITH THAT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FILL INTO THE AREA, AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW THURSDAY MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO LOW 20S IN THE WEST AND LOW 30S IN THE EAST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE WEST,
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY, AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, A LARGE CHANGE FROM THE SEVERAL PREVIOUS DAYS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS, CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. COLD WIND CHILLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
3. DRY AND QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.
A SEVERAL DAY UPSLOPE WIND AND SNOW EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
LOW AS IT PIVOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST, EACH SHORTWAVE BRINGING A
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLDER
THAN NORMAL AND WINDS GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AS A 45 TO 50 KNOT 850MB JET CROSSES THE REGION.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT A FEW INCHES ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE, INDICATED BY FORECAST PWATS LESS THAN A
HALF AN INCH, WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE.
PROBABILITIES OF 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 INCHES OR
GREATER, ENDING SATURDAY EVENING, ARE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY, AROUND 85%, AND BETWEEN 45% TO 55% OVER THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA, THOUGH
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO 65%.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILLS
MAY BE AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS IN THE WEST AND BELOW 30 DEGREES IN
THE EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA, AND THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WHILE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN COLD AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WINDS WILL START TO
DIMINISH, THUS SUNDAY WILL FEEL WARMER AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END FOR THE WEST.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING, THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CEILINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE 10KFT ON
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CEILING AND WIND.
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR VISIBILITY TONIGHT. NAM GUIDANCE
HAD IFR VISIBILITY IN THE FORECAST AFTER 1AM/06Z IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. BUT
EXPECT THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
SUB-VFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A FEW SHOWERS, WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE
FOR STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, SUB-VFR CIGS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/EB
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