151
FXUS61 KRNK 182316
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
616 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY
WEDNESDAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG, GUSTY WIND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLE TUESDAY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY,
LEADING TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA TOMORROW.
TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORTWAVE TRACKS AROUND THE OUTER RINGS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY.
3) SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN WEST VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY, AND
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
4) STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DIP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY
EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
LAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION STRENGTHENING, CAUSING STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR
AREA. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT MUCH COLDER AIR INTO OUR AREA AND
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
35-40+ MPH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.
THE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE WILL COMBINE TO ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPING WINDS,
CUTTING OFF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY WEST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME FLURRIES
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN WEST VIRGINIA INITIALLY ON THURSDAY BEFORE ALL HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS WV/VA/NC WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN AROUND
1-2" IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH AROUND 1.0" MOST ELSEWHERE
ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS. GREENBRIER COUNTY IN WV COULD SEE AS MUCH
AS 3.0" DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES START OUT MILD AS THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
60S, WITH EVEN A FEW 70S IN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS POSSIBLE. ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, WITH 50S
FOR THE FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE THE FRONT FULLY PASSES. EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW 30S
FOR THE PIEDMONT AND 20S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WIND CHILLS.
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN WEST VIRGINIA.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
3) WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S UNTIL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM UP AND WINDS REDUCE ON SUNDAY.
THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST
VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA, AND NORTH CAROLINA FOR FRIDAY. THE INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE LATER IN THE DAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. HOWEVER, WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
EXACT ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT MOST
OF WEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE AT LEAST 3-4" OF SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA, THOUGH
ISOLATED HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY COULD SEE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS, POSSIBLY OVER
6.0". THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOWFALL OCCURS. THE SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES ALSO REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS NOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO WIND DOWN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH 30S
AND 40S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY SLOWLY RISING TO THE 40S AND 50S BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOWS REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT, IN THE 20S AND
30S EACH MORNING.
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING TO BE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH
EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE
WINDS, WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE THREAT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN WEST VIRGINIA.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
3) WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S UNTIL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM UP AND WINDS REDUCE ON SUNDAY.
THE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OF WEST
VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA, AND NORTH CAROLINA FOR FRIDAY. THE INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE LATER IN THE DAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. HOWEVER, WEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
EXACT ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT MOST
OF WEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE AT LEAST 3-4" OF SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA, THOUGH
ISOLATED HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY COULD SEE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS, POSSIBLY OVER
6.0". THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOWFALL OCCURS. THE SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES ALSO REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS NOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO WIND DOWN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH 30S
AND 40S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY SLOWLY RISING TO THE 40S AND 50S BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOWS REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT, IN THE 20S AND
30S EACH MORNING.
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING TO BE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH
EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE
WINDS, WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE THREAT.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 600 PM EST MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. ALL
SITES LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE MVFR CIGS START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THANKS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT, AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA PROPAGATING THROUGH WV EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THESE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR CIGS LOOK TO IMPACT LWB AND
BLF FIRST AROUND 18 UTC TUESDAY, AND PROGRESS EAST TO IMPACT
BCB AND ROA BY THE 20-21 UTC TIMEFRAME. BOTH DAN AND LYH LOOK TO
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS SHORTLY BEFORE 00 UTC WEDNESDAY. THE
INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, LOOK TO BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR
STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, SUB-VFR CIGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/RCS
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