254
FXUS61 KRNK 190744
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
244 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COLD WIND CHILLS AS WELL, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
2) AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEEP TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES NORTH INTO
CANADA WHILE A SURFACE FRONT SPANNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST ABOVE NORMAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
BEST FORCING LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTH, THUS LOWERING RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. RAIN COVERAGE DIMINISHES FURTHER EAST INTO
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, ALONG WITH AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
2. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
3. COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING.
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
TRACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION, AND SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL QUICKLY BE
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY A SECONDARY FRONT, FORCING THE MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FOR MOST. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SECONDARY, STRONGER FRONT, WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY, AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS
EARLY AS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A 850MB JET OF
45 TO 50 KNOTS DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES, WHICH
WILL KICK OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC, AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DECENT FETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE INTO THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
INTO PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
PROBABILITIES FOR 72 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 4" ARE
HIGHEST OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, WV, NEAR 90%. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WESTERN GREENBRIER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW TOTALS, SINCE THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW, TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE
A STEEP DROP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST, AND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST, ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
WILL LEAD TO A SMALLER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE, AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. GUSTY WINDS, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE
SATURDAY MORNING.
2. DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES, THOUGH STILL COLD,
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE AREA WILL STILL BE FIRMLY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY,
THOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL START TRACKING FARTHER EASTWARD, INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEREFORE,
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SATURDAY, FINALLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IN THE WEST
SATURDAY MORNING, AND LOW 30S IN THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS THE 500MB FLOW
STARTS TO FLATTEN, REDUCING THE FETCH OFF THE GREAT LAKES, AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
500MB HEIGHTS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY, SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE CENTRAL US, WITH A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST THIS
IS, IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IMPACTS TO THE AREA AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY
AT LWB AND DAN. MVFR CIGS COULD POSSIBLY BEGIN TO IMPACT LWB
AND BLF FIRST AROUND 18 UTC/1 PM TODAY, AND PROGRESS EAST TO
BCB AND ROA BY THE 20-21 UTC/3-4 PM TIMEFRAME. BOTH DAN AND LYH
LOOK TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS SHORTLY BEFORE 00 UTC/7 PM
WEDNESDAY. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID
24HR TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS PERIODS OF IFR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INCOMING FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE FOR
STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, SUB-VFR CIGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG
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