881
FXUS61 KRNK 200240
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD WIND
CHILLS AS WELL, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE OVERTAKEN THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND ARE
CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS
NOT SEEN AS MUCH SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING, WHICH HAS LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THIS TREND, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS DO EVENTUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE
AREA AND COOL THINGS DOWN. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS; HOWEVER, A FEW
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
2) CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING, EXITING BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
PIEDMONT.
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL EXIT WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRACK OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN THE PIEDMONT IN THE
EVENING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, THIS FRONT WILL PASS WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. SINCE THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 70S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY.
2) SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
3) WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE STARTING THURSDAY EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE RNK CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED
THROUGH, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING. THESE CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY, WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30
MPH TO BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON
WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS, BEGINNING IN WEST VIRGINIA AND WORKING
SOUTH INTO THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. A COASTAL
LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO TAKE OVER AS THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WILL CAUSE THE ENERGY FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SWING SOUTH AS IT
WEAKENS. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL IN WEST
VIRGINIA AND IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ELSEWHERE. WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY IS NOW EXPECTED TO HAVE AT LEAST 6.0" WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT TO AROUND AN INCH FOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
COUNTY. FLURRIES AND EVEN A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY LATE FRIDAY,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT TO SEE 1-3" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF SNOW TO FALL,
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GROUND MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS, DUE TO THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BEING VERY WARM, WHICH WILL CAUSE
INITIAL SNOWFALL TO MELT. SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, DOWN INTO THE 30S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW AVERAGE, AS IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PIEDMONT WILL BE
WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 40S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, THOUGH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. WITH A
DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH AND
COLD TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL BE QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AFTER
HAVING MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING.
2) STRONG WINDS ALSO REDUCE ON SUNDAY, ENDING THE WIND CHILL
THREAT.
3) A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO
LESSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN US MOVES AWAY. NONETHELESS, AN ADDITIONAL 1-2"
OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS END BY SATURDAY
EVENING. SNOW TOTALS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, DUE TO MODELS VARYING
ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE SNOWFALL. THE NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CAUSE A LOWER SNOW RATIO, WHICH WILL
SLIGHTLY REDUCE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION,
WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY. WINDS REDUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS,
WHICH WILL ALSO END THE WIND CHILL THREAT. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR WEST, WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM, CAUSING HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH LOWS REMAINING
MILDER IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 615 PM EST TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THEY EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA, MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
WEST THAT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. GUSTS DURING THE 20-00 UTC
TIMEFRAME ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS. CEILINGS
LOOK TO RETURN TO VFR LEVELS JUST BEFORE 00 UTC FOR WESTERN
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCE
FOR STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, SUB-VFR CIGS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...EB/RCS
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/RCS
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