198
FXUS61 KRNK 201138
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
638 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COLD WIND CHILLS, ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TODAY.
2) STRONG GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGHOUT TODAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SUBTLE RIDGING OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OFF AND ON SHOWERS, DRIZZLE, AND FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I81 CORRIDOR. A RATHER
NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH AS MUCH AS A 10F TO 15F DEGREE DROP IN AN HOUR OR TWO.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE OF VIRGINIA AND INTO NW
NORTH CAROLINA. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALONG WITH A MODEST
850MB JET AND PRESSURE RISES WOULD INDICATE SOME GUSTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40MPH RANGE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. CONCERN FOR DOWNED TREES IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONSIDERING THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER TREE DAMAGE LINGERING FROM HELENE. WITH THE CONCERN FOR
DOWNED TREES AND UPON LOOKING AT NEWEST GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM AROUND 6PM THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT,
THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY, WV THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
2. STRONG WINDS, COLD TEMPERATURES, MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.
3. DOWNED TREES AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES, AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC, WITH AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT,
ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FIRST COLD
FRONT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW LATER THURSDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE REGION, WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE. THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY,
AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG, AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, ALONG WITH A 120 KNOT 500MB JET STREAK LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
SET UP FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW BANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE
THOSE WILL SET UP, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SOME
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW RATES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THOSE WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS.
THE THIRD PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER LOW
FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHER MID ATLANTIC, AND 850MB
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BE THE START OF THE CLASSIC
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS, WHICH HAS INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE OF VA AND NORTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS. WITH 850MB WINDS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ARE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THOUGH NOT QUITE WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. DOWNED TREES AND TREE LIMBS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE OF SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NC,
WHERE MANY DAMAGED TREES LINGER AFTER HURRICANE HELENE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE THREE DAY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT AT THIS TIME, AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES
FROM BLUEFIELD, WV AND SOUTH INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
NC. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, WV,
WHICH COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 6 TO 8 INCHES. THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT
IN SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF THE WV/VA BORDER, DROPPING TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW 20S IN THE EAST.
PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO COLD MAY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE,
SO BE SURE TO WEAR MULTIPLE LAYERS OF WARM CLOTHING WHILE OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WARMING
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
2. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DEEP UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER
AND UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, AND OFF THE
COAST OF EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR 500MB FLOW TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL, LEADING TO A DECREASE IN WINDS AND AN END IN THE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY BY MONDAY, AND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
LIFT FROM THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 635 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS LATE MORNING. UNTIL THEN, WILL HAVE AREAS OF IFR
TO LIFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBY.
SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT. MAY HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE STARTING IN BLF/LWB RIGHT AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
THEN SPREAD EAST TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 20KT TO 30KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. AREAS ALONG THE RIDGES MAY EXPERIENCE
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40KTS FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS IMPROVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW AND STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY, WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ015>017.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG
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