223
FXUS61 KRNK 150949
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, PRODUCING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR THE LOCAL REGION, EXPECT MAINLY FREEZING RAIN WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING, WITH SLEET, AND POSSIBLY SNOW
MIXING IN AT TIMES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT. A WET AND WARMER WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
2) FREEZING RAIN, MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW AT TIMES. TRANSITIONING
TO A ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
3) RAIN ENDING TONIGHT.
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WAS
PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION TYPES...THE APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS FAVORING MIXED
WINTRY FORMS OF PRECIP WITH FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW.
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH SOME ICE ACCRETIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCRETIONS OF 0.1-0.3" ARE FORECAST FOR A SMALLER REGION OF
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA NORTH THROUGH WESTERN MARYLAND AND INTO
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHICH COULD CAUSE TREE AND POWER LINE
DAMAGE.
FOR OUR LOCAL REGION AND CWA, COLD AIR WAS TRAPPED/WEDGED UP
AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S. WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE ADIABATIC
COOLING WAS TAKING PLACE, THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND HIGHLANDS,
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW 32
DEGREES, EXPECT FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET OR SNOW MAY MIX AT
TIMES, SLEET FAVORED SOUTH OF I-64 WHERE THE 850 MB WARM NOSE
WAS ABOVE 0 DEG C, AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 85H TEMPS WERE BETWEEN 0 TO MINUS 3 DEG C.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW, INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FOR
GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL EXPECTING P-TYPE TO BE
IN THE LIQUID FORM PER STRONG WAA ADVECTION ALOFT PRODUCING
NOSE OF ABOVE 0 DEG C AIR FOR THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA WITH
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY P-TYPE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH WITH VARIED ENDING
TIMES AS WARM AIR INFILTRATES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THANKFULLY,
THIS EVENT IS OCCURRING OVER A WEEKEND, SO TRAFFIC SHOULD BE
LIGHT. NEVER THE LESS, EXPECT ICY ROADS AND WALKWAYS, AND USE
CAUTION. ICE MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED ON ELEVATED OBJECTS SUCH AS
TREES AND POWERLINES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S, ALTHOUGH REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THE LONGEST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY WHERE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND
WILL SUPPRESS WARMING DUE TO IT'S ADIABATIC COOLING EFFECT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY, FALLING VERY
LITTLE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE FORM OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END,
LIQUID TOTALS FROM THE EVENT RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.75, THE
HIGHER TOTALS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. THE PIEDMONT WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST AMOUNTS, A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST SOUTH AND
EAST OF DANVILLE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RECURRING
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AND DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA POST FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. LATE
EVENING, THE NEXT FRONT WILL TOWARDS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO CANADA, WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES IN, CAUSING IT TO DIE OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. NONETHELESS, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.1-0.25" ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE QPF MEANS, THOUGH ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING BY AROUND
MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON
WHEN RAIN WILL NEXT ARRIVE INTO THE RNK CWA, AS THE ECMWF HAS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN BOTH MODELS HAVE THE MAIN FRONT
MOVING IN. THIS FRONT WILL BE WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE STILL INCONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS, BUT GENERALLY AROUND 0.25"+
COULD FALL AREA-WIDE. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AS A LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE RETREATS, BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE 50S AND MID 60S, WITH SOME
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS NEARING 70 DEGREES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
MIDWEEK BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN, WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
LOW WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH COULD
INITIATE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FACING MOUNTAINS.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA. IT WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER LATE WEEK IF ANY
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING CAN MOVE INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S, BUT DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT, IN THE 20S EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 430 AM EST SUNDAY...
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR FREEZING, SO EXPECTING A HODGE PODGE OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES WITH FREEZING RAIN FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE RNK FORECAST
AREA...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AT THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE 32 DEG F THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
RIDGE OBSCURATIONS. VSBYS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.
ESE WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-30 KTS AT BLF EARLY IN THE DAY. FOR
THE PIEDMONT, NE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER,
BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-
010-012-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ011-
013-014-016>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>003-
018-019.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ043-
044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
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