374
FXUS61 KRNK 152120
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
420 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
BY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY,
CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED ANOTHER COLD PUSH TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN FOR MOST. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR W. GREENBRIER, ALLEGHANY, AND
BATH COUNTIES FOR LINGERING ICING.
2) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WARMER BUT CLOUDY WEATHER TOMORROW.
A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY ALMOST DUE EAST
THIS EVENING, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. BROAD, MODERATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAD CHANGED OVER MOST OF THE WINTRY MIX WE
HAVE SEEN TODAY TO PLAIN RAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S
REMAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ONLY THOSE AREAS, AND ROADS MAY REMAIN
SLICK FOR A TIME.
REPORTED ICING AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO ABOUT TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH. THANKFULLY WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MELTING, EVEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WARM OR STAY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
WEDGING WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOW AND OVERCAST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO WV SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT, AND WE
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER BY
NIGHTFALL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MOST PARAMETERS, BUT LOWER FOR THE ONSET TIME
OF RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, AS MODELS ARE HINTING IT COULD BE LATER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) RECURRING FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND SLIGHTLY UP WITH RAIN COVERAGE, THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.10- 0.25" ARE STILL EXPECTED. NCEP SREF PLUME QPF
MEANS ALSO SHOW THESE AMOUNTS, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE INTO WEST VIRGINIA. POST FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE RNK CWA, KEEPING QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LONGWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS, POSSIBLY
0.25"+. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION, KEEPING
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED INTO THE LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MIDWEEK, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S UNTIL A COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT OCCURS ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AREA-WIDE
LATE WEEK.
2) SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN, BUT ONLY FOR A
SHORT TIME. ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE RNK CWA AS THIS FRONT PASSES.
HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS
FORMING ON THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS, POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW, BUT THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN LATE WEEK POST FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 20S AND
30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S BEFORE LOWERING
INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
WITH ONE WEATHER SYSTEM EXITING AND ANOTHER APPROACHING BY LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN
AT THE TERMINALS WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN STILL OCCURRING OVER
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS, BUT STILL
NORTH OF LWB.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN/DROP TO IFR/LIFR RANGE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BONA FIDE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP
UNDER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR BLF, LWB, AND BCB AROUND 15Z MONDAY,
WHILE ROA, LYH, AND DAN REMAIN IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z.
WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE TODAY WITH SE WINDS PREVAILING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND ENE WINDS FOR THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL SPEEDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 7 KTS AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
BE NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 10 KTS
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB-VFR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVING BY MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FOR BLF/LWB. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER
TUESDAY WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WEDGE.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER, BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-
020.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ507-
508.
SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH
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