360
FXUS61 KRNK 160628
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY
BY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY,
CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED ANOTHER COLD PUSH TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 620 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FREEZING RAIN EXITING THE AREA AS TEMPS SLOWLY WARM IN THE
ALLEGHANYS. WILL LET WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7PM.
2) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WARMER BUT CLOUDY WEATHER TOMORROW.
WEDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL SEE THE RAIN
START TO SLACKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL STICK AROUND INTO DAWN. FOG WILL BE FAIRLY DENSE AT
THE HIGHER RIDGES, WITH MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE RIDGES HAVING
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR
FOG FOR ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT FOR NOW COVERING
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. NONETHELESS, THOSE DRIVING
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY ALMOST DUE EAST
THIS EVENING, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED WEDGED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. BROAD, MODERATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAD CHANGED OVER MOST OF THE WINTRY MIX WE
HAVE SEEN TODAY TO PLAIN RAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 30S
REMAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ONLY THOSE AREAS, AND ROADS MAY REMAIN
SLICK FOR A TIME.
REPORTED ICING AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO ABOUT TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH. THANKFULLY WAA CONTINUES TONIGHT
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MELTING, EVEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WARM OR STAY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
WEDGING WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOW AND OVERCAST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO WV SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT, AND WE
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE WV/VA BORDER BY
NIGHTFALL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MOST PARAMETERS, BUT LOWER FOR THE ONSET TIME
OF RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, AS MODELS ARE HINTING IT COULD BE LATER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) RECURRING FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND SLIGHTLY UP WITH RAIN COVERAGE, THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.10- 0.25" ARE STILL EXPECTED. NCEP SREF PLUME QPF
MEANS ALSO SHOW THESE AMOUNTS, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE INTO WEST VIRGINIA. POST FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE RNK CWA, KEEPING QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LONGWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS, POSSIBLY
0.25"+. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION, KEEPING
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED INTO THE LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MIDWEEK, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S UNTIL A COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT OCCURS ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AREA-WIDE
LATE WEEK.
2) SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN, BUT ONLY FOR A
SHORT TIME. ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE RNK CWA AS THIS FRONT PASSES.
HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS
FORMING ON THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS, POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS
THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW, BUT THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN LATE WEEK POST FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 20S AND
30S BY SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S BEFORE LOWERING
INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST SUNDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH MOST HAVING IFR
OR LOWER. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS TO MVFR AT BLF PER BETTER AIR ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE. RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR, BUT ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT OVERNIGHT,
VSBYS COULD DROP TO LIFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.
VSBYS SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE MONDAY MORNING TO VFR, BUT SHOULD HAVE
LOW CIGS MOST OF THE DAY IN THE IFR RANGE.
WINDS ARE GOING TO STAY LIGHT/CALM MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM THE TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE. ADDED
TEMPO GROUP FOR BLF AND LWB TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY MID-DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE FOR CIGS AND LOW FOR VSBY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB-VFR WITH WEAK TROUGH PRODUCING MORE RAIN
FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH IMPACTS TO BLF/LWB,
POSSIBLY REACHING ROA/BCB. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WEDGE.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER, BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
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