963
FXUS61 KRNK 161816
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
116 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN COOL BACK DOWN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1000 AM EST MONDAY...
POPS WERE ADJUSTED THIS MORNING PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW 50S TODAY, WITH OFF AND ON
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGE: CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RESIDUAL WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING. NEXT, IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS
BRING THIS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR LOCAL REGION TOWARD
MID-DAY, FAVORING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR RECEIVING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SPREADING EAST AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, BUT WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE PIEDMONT. ATTM FORECASTING 24 HOUR RAIN
AMOUNTS (7AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7AM TUESDAY) OF ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH IN BLF/LWB TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN DANVILLE WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
WARMING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THE COOL
SURFACE WEDGE WITH TIME. WENT WITH THE WARMER MOS NUMBERS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 50 FOR ALL BUT THE MOST
STUBBORN COLD/WEDGE PRONE HOLDOUT AREAS...NORTHEAST OF ROANOKE
AND LYNCHBURG ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MOST WEATHER VARIABLES TODAY, BUT LOWER FOR
ACTUAL QPF.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) RAIN MOVES OUT TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THEN RETURNS AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WINDS DOWN BY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE RAIN MOVES BACK IN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MOST MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THIS, LOW POPS ARE KEPT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN, THOUGH
QPF AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING DOWN, PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE QPF MEANS HAVE GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.1-0.2" IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH 0.2" ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND AROUND
0.5" ALONG THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS OF VA/WV. NCEP SREF PLUMES ALSO
SUPPORT THESE AMOUNTS. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY,
WITH QUIETER WEATHER MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
IN THE 50S AND 60S, WITH SOME EASTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS NEARING 70
DEGREES. BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, LOWERING HIGHS INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S MIDWEEK BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) WESTERN UPSLOPE REGIONS COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE RNK CWA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY IS
STRONG, LITTLE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY.
WESTERN UPSLOPE REGIONS MAY SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
AND CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS FLOW ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THAT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND, AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING THIS DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE TROUGH HANGS
AROUND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE, PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE RNK CWA LATE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR FRIDAY BUT FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND DOWN INTO
THE TEENS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EST MONDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON, AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS HAVE BOTH BEEN BOUNCING
BETWEEN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ALL MORNING, AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. ALONG WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED AT LWB AND BCB DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FROM 03 UTC TO 12 UTC. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY ON DURING THE TAF
PERIOD; HOWEVER, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW TRANSITION TO OUT OF
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 06 UTC TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW FOR CIGS AND VSBY AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SEEM TO BE BOUNCING BETWEEN CATEGORIES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE..
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB-VFR WITH WEAK TROUGH PRODUCING MORE RAIN
FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH IMPACTS TO BLF/LWB,
POSSIBLY REACHING ROA/BCB. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WEDGE.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER, BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...EB/PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/PM
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