017
FXUS61 KRNK 162002
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
302 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN COOL BACK DOWN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE WEST
VIRGINIA AND AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE WEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA, WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR MOSTLY SE WEST
VIRGINIA AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE PIEDMONT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES;
HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING PLENTIFUL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STRUGGLING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT QUICKLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST, SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL,
TUESDAY LOOKS TO START CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SHOULD END UP
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT, A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF WHAT WILL BE MAINLY RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAWN ACROSS
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS,
HOWEVER ANY ICING SHOULD BE BRIEF, CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECT,
AND BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THICKNESS. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TO START THE DAY,
AND WILL THEN WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A BREAK IN RAIN DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING, RETURNING COOLER AIR THAT MAY CAUSE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA, BEFORE THE MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT BY THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
THIRD WEEK OF DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) INCREASING CONFIDENCE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
2) COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
THROUGH THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA. TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH ANY CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT, THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL WILL
TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SHOT OF POLAR AIR, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EST MONDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON, AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS HAVE BOTH BEEN BOUNCING
BETWEEN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ALL MORNING, AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. ALONG WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED AT LWB AND BCB DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FROM 03 UTC TO 12 UTC. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY ON DURING THE TAF
PERIOD; HOWEVER, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW TRANSITION TO OUT OF
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 06 UTC TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW FOR CIGS AND VSBY AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SEEM TO BE BOUNCING BETWEEN CATEGORIES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE..
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB-VFR WITH WEAK TROUGH PRODUCING MORE RAIN
FOR THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH IMPACTS TO BLF/LWB,
POSSIBLY REACHING ROA/BCB. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WEDGE.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER, BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...EB/PM
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