129
FXUS61 KRNK 170002
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
702 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN COOL BACK DOWN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
2) RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE WEST
VIRGINIA AND AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
3) WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY.
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
IN THE FOOTHILLS, AND IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE RIVER
VALLEYS ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR, WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO
A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA
CAUTION WHILE ON THE ROADS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, AND
LEAVE PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN OTHER CARS AROUND YOU. OTHERWISE,
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE AREA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
REACH SOUTHEAST WV AND SOUTHWEST VA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 200 PM EST MONDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE WEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA, WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR MOSTLY SE WEST
VIRGINIA AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE PIEDMONT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES;
HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING PLENTIFUL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STRUGGLING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT QUICKLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST, SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL,
TUESDAY LOOKS TO START CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SHOULD END UP
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT, A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF WHAT WILL BE MAINLY RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAWN ACROSS
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS,
HOWEVER ANY ICING SHOULD BE BRIEF, CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECT,
AND BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THICKNESS. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TO START THE DAY,
AND WILL THEN WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A BREAK IN RAIN DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING, RETURNING COOLER AIR THAT MAY CAUSE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA, BEFORE THE MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT BY THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
THIRD WEEK OF DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) INCREASING CONFIDENCE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
2) COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
THROUGH THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA. TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH ANY CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT, THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL WILL
TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SHOT OF POLAR AIR, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST MONDAY...
MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME AREAS OF LIFR ALONG THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE
RIVER VALLEYS, AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS, WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z OR SO TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TUESDAY, AND CLEAR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, ENDING 00Z
WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST WV, SOUTHWEST VA, AND NORTHWEST NC OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE MORE
IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KLWB AND KBCB DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ENDING AROUND
12Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY,
THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBLF OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 18Z
TUESDAY, AND IMPROVING AFTER THAT, BUT MODERATE TO LOW FOR
SPECIFIC VALUES OF VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER, BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...AS/EB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AS/EB
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