133
FXUS61 KRNK 170728
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
228 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN COOL BACK DOWN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) MILD WEATHER WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY NIGHT RAOB INDICATES NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST FLOW EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST LEVELS WHERE A
WEAK IN-SITU WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THIS EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY AROUND 0.10" OR LESS.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE PIEDMONT REGION TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S. MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT, A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
THE NEXT ROUND OF WHAT WILL BE MAINLY RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAWN ACROSS
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS,
HOWEVER ANY ICING SHOULD BE BRIEF, CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECT,
AND BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THICKNESS. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TO START THE DAY,
AND WILL THEN WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A BREAK IN RAIN DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING, RETURNING COOLER AIR THAT MAY CAUSE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA, BEFORE THE MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT BY THE ARRIVAL OF
DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
THIRD WEEK OF DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) INCREASING CONFIDENCE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
2) COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A ROUND OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
THROUGH THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA. TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH ANY CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER THE LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT, THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL WILL
TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SHOT OF POLAR AIR, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST TUESDAY...
LESS THAN OPTIMAL FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
FOG RESULTING ON LOW VSBY AND CIGS. IFR TO LIFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z/8AM AND MAY EVEN HAVE SOME PATCHY VSBY/CIGS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z/10AM. OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG, SKIES ARE
GENERALLY BKN/OVC RANGING FROM 1500KFT TO 2500KFT.
A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FOR BLF/LWB. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT TODAY TO MVFR/VFR.
MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW CIGS/LOW VSBY AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE, THEREFORE MAY HAVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ016-017-
022-023-032>035-045.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ002>004-
019-020.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG
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