350
FXUS61 KRNK 180739
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
239 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
ARRIVING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MILD WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) RAIN ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DRIFT NORTH
THROUGHOUT TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERY
ACTIVITY AROUND SUNRISE, BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CLOSER THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING
WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY SUNSET. COULD HAVE
SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOW, IT IS NOT ZERO, THUS COULD HAVE A
VERY ISOLATED CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AS THE LINE INITIALLY ENTERS THE CWA. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS JUDGING BY NEWEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
SEEMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR BY THE
AFTERNOON, SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
REMAIN IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A TRANSITION TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MY
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN THAT WE'LL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25
IN. AND 0.5 IN. OVERALL REGION WIDE, WITH HIGHER QPF TOTALS
ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING AN
INCH MAY EVEN BE SEEN. EVEN WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE VALUES
AVERAGING 80-90% OF SATURATION IN SEVERAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, ANY FLOODING RISK SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE STORM SYSTEM'S
SPEED.
AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE ENDING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH - AND PROBABLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS
OF AN INCH - AND PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE MIDWEST. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA, ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. GIVEN FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT WINTRY IN NATURE THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MIXING WITH OR BECOMING RAIN FRIDAY. THEN, AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW. ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS MOST LIKELY
AVERAGING A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
- SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE BIG STORY IN THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVEN AFTER THE "DEPARTURE" OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS, A BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS SUCH, WILL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING BELOW WHAT WE NORMALLY EXPECT THIS TIME
OF YEAR, AS BOUNDARY LAYER/850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW ZERO. THE
RESULT WILL BE HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 20S AND 30S BY
SUNDAY. AND WITH A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE LIKELY BLOWING BETWEEN 10
AND 15 MPH, IT'LL LIKELY FEEL MUCH COLDER. FORTUNATELY, AT LEAST FOR
NOW, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL MEET ANY SORT OF HEADLINE THRESHOLD.
THE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. THERE'S SOME INDICATION IN
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COULD MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A
CLOSER LOOK AT THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD SUGGESTS
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS HAPPENING. GIVEN THIS, I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS -- PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA -- AND NOT STRAY TERRIBLY FAR FROM THE MODEL BLEND.
ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD.
WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT (RELATIVELY SPEAKING, OF
COURSE) EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EST TUESDAY...
CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM VFR WITH LITTLE CLOUDS TO IFR AND LOW
CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG ALSO REDUCING VSBY TO 1/2SM OR LESS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
LATER TODAY APPEARS TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR MOST
TERMINALS WITH RAIN MAKING IT TO LWB/BLF/BCB BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT FOR ROA AND
EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. THESE SUB-VFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
SATURDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE VFR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/WP
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...BMG
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