208  
FXUS61 KRNK 181127  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
627 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM  
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES  
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES  
GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS  
ARRIVING.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 215 AM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1) MILD WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  
 
2) RAIN ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR  
RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DRIFT NORTH  
THROUGHOUT TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERY  
ACTIVITY AROUND SUNRISE, BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAIN LOOKS TO  
REMAIN TO THE WEST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.  
 
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CLOSER THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING  
WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY SUNSET. COULD HAVE  
SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE.  
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOW, IT IS NOT ZERO, THUS COULD HAVE A  
VERY ISOLATED CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS WEST  
VIRGINIA AS THE LINE INITIALLY ENTERS THE CWA. NOT VERY  
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAKES IT EAST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS JUDGING BY NEWEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS  
SEEMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.  
 
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR BY THE  
AFTERNOON, SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR  
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64  
REMAIN IN THE 50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 430 AM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1). TRANSITION BACK TO MUCH COLDER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
2). LIMITED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT,  
BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.  
 
3). EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL/SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 
RAIN WILL WIND DOWN AND END EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SUPPORTING  
SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND DAYBREAK.  
MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD  
AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA  
INTO THE MIDWEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE WAKE OF THE  
INITIAL SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE  
STRONGER, SECONDARY SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION  
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE FROM +8C  
TODAY/WEDNESDAY TO AROUND -8C BY FRIDAY EVENING, THEN CONTINUE  
TO DROP FURTHER WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO AROUND -11C BY  
SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE LIMITED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
EARLY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT, ANOTHER AND MORE  
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE  
SECONDARY MORE DYNAMIC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
WITH GULF MOISTURE ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF FROM THE AREA, SNOW FOR  
THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE EXPECTED  
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 
ONCE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY EVENING,  
THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RISING ABOVE 0C  
SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A VERY COLD WEEKEND  
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S/30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FOR THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MUCH OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY  
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN  
DURING THE DAYTIME.  
 
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/  
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,  
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION0 PROBABILITIES,  
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 500 AM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1). COLD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 
2). MAINLY DRY WITH THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT NOT REACHING  
THE REGION UNTIL THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS BOTH THE  
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. FOR OUR  
REGION, THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DOMINATE WITH PREVAILING  
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEEPENING MID-ATLANTIC  
UPPER TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A FETCH OF COLD/DRY AIR IN  
PLACE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION  
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE COLD, ALSO DRY, WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT  
OFF. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH  
LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION  
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE  
FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA MIDWEEK, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
TREND BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME AND NEAR NORMAL THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND  
POINTS WEST TO THE 40S PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE  
IN THE 30S AND 40S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 625 AM EST TUESDAY...  
 
CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM VFR WITH LITTLE CLOUDS TO IFR/LIFR LOW  
CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 1/4SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEW  
RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH  
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE  
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
HOURS.  
 
SOME VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING, BUT LATER TODAY  
APPEARS TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH RAIN  
MAKING IT TO LWB/BLF/BCB BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN RAIN  
BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT FOR ROA AND EAST.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFT TO THE  
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...  
 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO  
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. WEST TO  
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH  
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. THESE SUB-VFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO LATE  
SATURDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE VFR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-  
019-020.  
WV...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BMG  
NEAR TERM...BMG  
SHORT TERM...RAB  
LONG TERM...RAB  
AVIATION...BMG  
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