512
FXUS61 KRNK 181807
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
ARRIVING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 945 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS IT SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING AS MUCH OF THE DENSE FOG HAS
LIFTED. SOME POCKETS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY STILL BE PRESENT;
HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD LIFT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SOME CLEARING IS ALSO
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND SW VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MOST RECENT CAM GUIDANCE HAS
SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY PUSHING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SW VIRGINIA AND SE WEST VIRGINIA, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MILD WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) RAIN ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DRIFT NORTH
THROUGHOUT TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERY
ACTIVITY AROUND SUNRISE, BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CLOSER THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING
WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY SUNSET. COULD HAVE
SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOW, IT IS NOT ZERO, THUS COULD HAVE A
VERY ISOLATED CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AS THE LINE INITIALLY ENTERS THE CWA. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAKES IT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS JUDGING BY NEWEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS
SEEMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE IT TO AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR BY THE
AFTERNOON, SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
REMAIN IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 430 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). TRANSITION BACK TO MUCH COLDER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2). LIMITED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
3). EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL/SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
RAIN WILL WIND DOWN AND END EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SUPPORTING
SHORT WAVE RAPIDLY EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL INTENSIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD
AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MIDWEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE
STRONGER, SECONDARY SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE FROM +8C
TODAY/WEDNESDAY TO AROUND -8C BY FRIDAY EVENING, THEN CONTINUE
TO DROP FURTHER WITH THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO AROUND -11C BY
SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE LIMITED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT, ANOTHER AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
SECONDARY MORE DYNAMIC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WITH GULF MOISTURE ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF FROM THE AREA, SNOW FOR
THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE EXPECTED
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ONCE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY EVENING,
THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RISING ABOVE 0C
SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A VERY COLD WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S/30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MUCH OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION0 PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 500 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). COLD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
2). MAINLY DRY WITH THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT NOT REACHING
THE REGION UNTIL THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. FOR OUR
REGION, THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DOMINATE WITH PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEEPENING MID-ATLANTIC
UPPER TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A FETCH OF COLD/DRY AIR IN
PLACE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE COLD, ALSO DRY, WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT
OFF. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE
FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA MIDWEEK, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME AND NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
POINTS WEST TO THE 40S PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BCB, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. ALL WESTERN TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 19 AND
00 UTC THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION. THESE RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF LOWER CIGS LOOK TO
EXPAND EAST THROUGH 6 UTC, BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
LOOKS TO RETURN VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BLF BY 12
UTC THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN CIGS AND VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. THESE SUB-VFR CIGS COULD LINGER
INTO LATE SATURDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE VFR RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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