716
FXUS61 KRNK 182101
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
401 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT, TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS ARRIVING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
THE AREA KEEPING US FAIRLY DRY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS.
2) THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.
UPDATED FORECAST AS GETTING A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NC AREA WHERE SBCAPES ARE
100-250 J/KG. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 60S BUILDING
THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOST SHOWERS EXITING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION, AND
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THESE SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE, WHICH WILL DROP FORECAST PRECIPITATION
VALUES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION, LEADING TO CLEARING
SKIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IN SE WEST VIRGINIA;
HOWEVER, NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION LOOK TO COOL DOWN IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS
RIDGING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE RNK CWA. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGHLANDS OF WV WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW LIGHT. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
0.1-0.2", ACCORDING TO THE NBM, THOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE AROUND 0.25" POSSIBLY UP TO 0.4" DUE TO MORE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS, WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO NOT
RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH 0.5-1.0" POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS. FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE
HIGHLANDS OF WV COULD SEE AROUND 1-2" AND WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY IN WV WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS, POSSIBLY UP
TO 3-5". WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 45MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BRINGING DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER BACK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES START OUT ON FRIDAY AROUND NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN, HIGHS WILL BE TEN TO TWENTY DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE
20S AND 30S AREA-WIDE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
2) BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE OVER THE AREA, THOUGH IT WILL
ONLY BE A MODEST WEDGE, BUT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW TO
NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AS WE HEAD INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE ON TUESDAY, THE WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE, WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, BUT MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO OUR AREA. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS MAY FORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, POSSIBLY MIXING IN A FEW
SNOW FLAKES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CHRISTMAS DAY MAY HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE GFS HAS A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM A
LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION, WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IN THE
CWA AS THE LOW DIES OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. DUE TO THIS
DISCREPANCY, POPS ARE KEPT MODEST, AROUND 30%. AS OF NOW,
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE TOO WARM TO SEE SNOWFALL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A COLD RAIN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT RISE TO AROUND 30
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BCB, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. ALL WESTERN TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 19 AND
00 UTC THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION. THESE RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF LOWER CIGS LOOK TO
EXPAND EAST THROUGH 6 UTC, BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
LOOKS TO RETURN VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BLF BY 12
UTC THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN CIGS AND VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT. THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
THESE SUB- VFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO LATE SATURDAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE VFR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page