575
FXUS61 KRNK 190737
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE THE AREA KEEPING US FAIRLY DRY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. ONCE THIS
ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST, SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
COLD ADVECTION STRATUS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD STAY
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE WEST IN
THE LOW/MID 40S AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS
RIDGING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE RNK CWA. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGHLANDS OF WV WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW LIGHT. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
0.1-0.2", ACCORDING TO THE NBM, THOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE AROUND 0.25" POSSIBLY UP TO 0.4" DUE TO MORE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS, WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO NOT
RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH 0.5-1.0" POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NC/VA MOUNTAINS. FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE
HIGHLANDS OF WV COULD SEE AROUND 1-2" AND WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY IN WV WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS, POSSIBLY UP
TO 3-5". WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 45MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BRINGING DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER BACK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES START OUT ON FRIDAY AROUND NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN, HIGHS WILL BE TEN TO TWENTY DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE
20S AND 30S AREA-WIDE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
2) BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE OVER THE AREA, THOUGH IT WILL
ONLY BE A MODEST WEDGE, BUT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW TO
NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AS WE HEAD INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE ON TUESDAY, THE WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE, WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, BUT MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO OUR AREA. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS MAY FORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, POSSIBLY MIXING IN A FEW
SNOW FLAKES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CHRISTMAS DAY MAY HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE GFS HAS A STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM A
LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION, WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IN THE
CWA AS THE LOW DIES OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. DUE TO THIS
DISCREPANCY, POPS ARE KEPT MODEST, AROUND 30%. AS OF NOW,
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE TOO WARM TO SEE SNOWFALL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A COLD RAIN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT RISE TO AROUND 30
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
IFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS COOL AIR STRATUS
SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE CIGS AT BLF/BCB/LWB OVC
700FT TO 1500FT THROUGH DAYBREAK. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON.
MAY HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS BUILD BACK IN LATE IN THE CURRENT VALID
TAF PERIOD.
NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL FOR THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK, SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS SINK TO SUB-VFR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
FIRST, REACH THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING COULD DROP VSBYS TO MVFR TO
IFR. THESE SUB- VFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO LATE SATURDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE VFR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG
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