916
FXUS61 KRNK 191046
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
546 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE THE AREA KEEPING US FAIRLY DRY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. ONCE THIS
ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST, SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
COLD ADVECTION STRATUS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD STAY
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE WEST IN
THE LOW/MID 40S AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL/SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
2). CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY-SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 77.
A DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. COLD ADVECTION
INITIATING FRIDAY BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INTENSIFY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO HEAD DOWNWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MODERATING SUNDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND -10C ACROSS THE
CWA.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL USHER IN THE COLDER ARCTIC AIR WHILE
THE UPSLOPE WINDS AND SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS COMBINE TO BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV AND
MOSTLY AROUND AN INCH ELSEWHERE MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF I-77. AN
ISOLATED REPORT OF 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FLURRIES AND
A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE
RIDGE.
ONCE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY EVENING,
THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW 0C THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RISING ABOVE 0C
SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A VERY COLD WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S/30S WEST TO THE 40S EAST
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MUCH OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN
DURING THE DAYTIME.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION0 PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS/
AS OF 530 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). REMAINING COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT A BIT
LESS FRIGID THAN THE WEEKEND.
2). UNSETTLED, PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN, POTENTIALLY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER EVENT, TO THE
AREA JUST IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS.
AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. FOR OUR
REGION, THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PROMISES TO
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR
CHRISTMAS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE ONSET FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS APPEARS TO BE
ANOTHER RAIN EVENT. NO WHITE CHRISTMAS EXPECTED THIS YEAR.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA MIDWEEK, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME AND
NEAR NORMAL AT NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND POINTS WEST TO THE 40S
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY...
IFR CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS COOL AIR STRATUS
SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE CIGS AT BLF/BCB/LWB OVC
700FT TO 1500FT THROUGH DAYBREAK. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON.
MAY HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS BUILD BACK IN LATE IN THE CURRENT VALID
TAF PERIOD.
NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL FOR THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK, SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS SINK TO SUB-VFR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
FIRST, REACH THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING COULD DROP VSBYS TO MVFR TO
IFR. THESE SUB- VFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO LATE SATURDAY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE VFR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page